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Nate Silver accuses shitlib pollsters of putting up fake polls to keep race clos
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Date: November 1st, 2024 1:59 PM Author: .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;, https://x.com/nypost/status/1852341019964031248 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268280) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:40 PM Author: Colonial Settler Expected reverse Big Willie. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268451) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:44 PM Author: infraphysics is hetero (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268465) |
Date: November 1st, 2024 2:05 PM Author: cannon They have to keep the polls “close” so they can claim the cheating isn’t obvious because “polls said it was a tossup heh” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268308) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:06 PM Author: l3orders And the can claim a tasty meal! Sometimes the idea of a meal is delicious that you’re so excited before it’s brought out by waiter staff. Once the meal is delivered the only thing left is to EAT it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268314) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:22 PM Author: piv Kamala tucking into enormous platters of fresh cut mango while trump fishes days-old french fries out of his jacket pockets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268374) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:24 PM Author: infraphysics is hetero (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268387) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 4:09 PM Author: potluck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268791) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:11 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. No shit. There are way too many polls showing that candidates within one point of each other. Pollsters don't want another miss after 2016 and 2020, both of which were close elections, so they're herding close to a tie. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268338) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:15 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe someone made a good analogy to actively-managed funds making decisions to get close to the benchmark by essentially just investing in the benchmark, instead of taking risks to try to beat it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268355) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:21 PM Author: .,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,;:.,.:..:.,:,::,. Or maybe it’s just a close election (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268370) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:30 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. Doesn't justify the polls all being this close to each other. The last election with no clear polling favorite was 2004, but there was still wide variation in individual polls (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#oh_.
Currently in Pennsylvania there are ZERO mainstream polls with either candidate up three or more. That's especially implausible when you consider that polling has only become worse since 2004 due to growth in non-response. |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:22 PM Author: :;:;;;:;:;;;:;:;:;:; No he didn’t (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268373) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:32 PM Author: solace and wallace That's not what he said.
He said with normal polling you'd see stuff like Harris +5, Trump +3, Trump +1, Harris +2; not all Trump +1 or all Trump +5 for that matter.
If polls were more variable as expected that race could still be a tie based on the averages. |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:37 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. Manipulating polls to hit a tie or +1 is faking them. They should apply their standard methodology and publish even if it's Harris +6 or Trump +4 or whatever, but they're not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268437) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 5:24 PM Author: .,.,,...,...,..,....,...,...,... Election polling is as much an art as a science. The people who answer your polls are almost certainly not a representative cross section of the electorate as a whole. Pollsters try to fix that by weighting the responses to their survey. If your survey contains (for example) 25% black voters, but past experience suggests that blacks usually make up only 20% of the electorate, then you weight the responses of black voters slightly less so that the demographics of your sample resemble the demographics of the electorate. The problem is that nobody knows what the electorate will look like in advance. You can make an educated guess based on likely voter screens and past election results, but it's just a guess.
I doubt any pollsters are consciously manipulating the results to favor one candidate or the other (other than maybe a few partisan pollsters). It's more likely that they make an initial guess about what their weights should be. If they end up with a screwy result, they say, "Oh shit. Nobody else is publishing numbers like that. We must have done something wrong." Then they make another guess until they get weights that look closer to the polling averages. The result is that polls show less variability than they should. |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:43 PM Author: ,.,,.,..,..,..,.,..,.,..,.,..,.,.,.,.,..,. The same Nate Silver that was personally unthkewing polls in favor of Trump because idk it felt right? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268463) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 3:45 PM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat Does he have fucking DIP in
Is Nate silver based now? He had that qt podcast chick giggling and twirling her hair |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 4:01 PM Author: ,.,,.,.,,,,,,..................... I don't think an A+-rated pollster like Marist does this with the final poll they release, the one that they will be judged on for accuracy. They do this for a living- why would they throw their reputation and money in a toilet just to give Kamala a talking point for a day or two?
That's why the Marist poll yesterday showing her up 2-3 points in PA-MI-WI got my attention. Didn't convince me that she is going to win, but it did convince me that the narrative that some Trumpmos are trying to spread (it's over, our internal polls show Trump up by 6 in PA) are likely bs. |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 5:31 PM Author: Slaanesh They were off by literally like 12 in 2020. And hey, being horribly off didn’t get them blacklisted.
All of these public polls are thumbing the scale and guessing because they literally have no reliable way to correct for the shy Trump voters without calling 50,000 people which they can’t afford (unlike the campaigns). They’re all just guessing and most are herding, which is Silver’s point. |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 5:39 PM Author: .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;, (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48269183) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 5:46 PM Author: N904PD These Pennsylvania numbers are a work of art. RCP avg is 1.2 which is final result. But no one has a tie or Biden +1 or 2 so susaquehanna with Trump +1 is the closest lol
How does one “grade” this performance exactly
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/pennsylvania/trump-vs-biden |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 5:51 PM Author: .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;, RCP is king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48269241) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 4:06 PM Author: cowstack This guy should always wear a baseball cap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268783) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 4:09 PM Author: Cornel West (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48268793) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 6:06 PM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' Lol my first thought when I saw the pic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622578&forum_id=2#48269285) |