The question u should worry about now is whether Putin is still a rational actor
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Date: February 25th, 2022 12:33 AM Author: Amber den
it's not like putin has a literal button he can press. arming and launching icbms would take the cooperation of many. if we lasted the entire cold war without some general ripper nuking us we'll probably survive this.
do you think the chain of command will execute putin's orders if they are not under imminent threat, knowing that executing them will assure their own destruction?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5039509&forum_id=2#44029637) |
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Date: February 25th, 2022 12:51 AM Author: Amber den
it seems extremely unlikely. the same rhetoric was said in georgia, crimea, etc. people worried trump would nuke world leaders that mean tweeted him. having absolutely no knowledge of how the chain of command works in launching a nuke in russia, i assume that it isn't completely in putin's hands, and even if he was literally insane some link in the chain would break if he ordered a preemptive nuclear strike.
invading a nato country seems even more unlikely. the military and the people would know it's suicide. even ukraine seems unpopular.
anyway, we're thinking like 50 steps ahead right now. afghanistan took us 20 years, we lost, we have a 20t gdp, and we had the support of the international community. russia has 1.5t gdp, is getting massively sanctioned, and the whole world hates them. they're one day into their invasion. let's see how this pans out before we start worrying about russia invading estonia.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5039509&forum_id=2#44029718) |
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