https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/seizure-of-venezuelan-oil-strikes-at-the-heart-of-maduros-grip-on-power-2d2352c8?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Seizure of Venezuelan Oil Strikes at the Heart of Maduro’s Grip on Power

U.S. officials said they plan to confiscate more tankers in effort to oust strongman

By Ryan Dubé, Shelby Holliday and Benoit Faucon

The U.S. seized a tanker carrying approximately $80 million of Venezuelan oil, equivalent to about 5% of Venezuela’s monthly imported goods.

Crude sales account for over 90% of Venezuela’s export income, making oil revenue critical for the country and its leadership.

The threat of U.S. tanker seizures has paralyzed Venezuelan oil port traffic, with about a dozen ships waiting to dock.

The Trump administration’s seizure of a tanker full of Venezuelan crude hits Nicolás Maduro much harder than airstrikes on alleged drug boats. It raises an existential crisis for a regime that runs on oil revenue.

While the U.S. has accused Maduro of leading a drug-trafficking cartel—a charge he denies—oil money is far more important to the Venezuelan leader, his inner circle and the country itself. Crude sales have long represented more than 90% of Venezuela’s export income, and close Maduro allies have faced accusations of skimming from billions in annual oil revenues.

More tanker seizures—or even just the threat—creates an escalating series of crises, forcing Venezuela to deeply discount its oil to its handful of buyers, including China, and spend more of its dwindling foreign reserves to stop spiraling inflation.

Underscoring the danger: the tanker seized on Wednesday was carrying roughly $80 million of oil, equivalent to about 5% of what Venezuela spends monthly on imported goods, raising the prospect of shortages.

U.S. officials said Wednesday there would be more ship seizures in a new effort to force Maduro from power, an effort that has involved a massive military buildup in the Caribbean, deadly strikes on alleged drug boats and threats of bombing Venezuela. President Trump has said Maduro’s “days are numbered,” though he hasn’t publicly committed to a next course of action.

The U.S. move against the oil industry “could destabilize the regime,” said Fernando Ferreira, a geopolitical director at consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group in Washington. Trump, he added, “is building more leverage to get Maduro to leave.”

If the U.S. seizes one tanker a month, that would push Venezuela into a recession, said Francisco Rodríguez, a Venezuelan economist at the University of Denver.

“If you cause a massive decline in oil revenues, that’s going to cause another massive recession,” he said.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro holds a straw hat above his head while in the rain.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters

Even if the U.S. doesn’t regularly seize more tankers, the threat has already paralyzed tanker traffic in and out of Venezuela. On Thursday, there were about a dozen such ships outside Venezuela’s main oil port waiting to dock, but none had moved in to load crude. Normally, the port would be buzzing, with at least 10 tankers moving in to load or conducting ship-to-ship transfers.

A Venezuelan port official said employees around the country are calling in sick or skipping work as tensions with the U.S. escalate.

Venezuelan crude falls under U.S. sanctions, which make it all but impossible for most traders to deal in it. The market for Venezuelan oil is mostly served by a so-called shadow fleet of 1,000 aging tankers that also carry sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran, and many of these vessels face American sanctions.

TankerTrackers.com, a website that closely follows oil shipping, said there are about 80 vessels in Venezuelan waters or near its coast, including more than 30 under U.S. sanctions.

It is rare but not unprecedented for the U.S. to seize a ship in international waters. The Trump administration in 2020 seized four vessels allegedly loaded with Iranian fuel in violation of sanctions. A federal judge approved a warrant for at least one of those seizures, saying Justice Department prosecutors had provided enough evidence that the tanker and its fuel were assets of a designated terrorist organization.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that the tanker, the Skipper, had been sanctioned for carrying Iranian oil in the past and would be taken to a U.S. port. She said U.S. forces executed a warrant for the Skipper, and that investigators were interviewing its crew.

She said the U.S. would take possession of the oil on the ship—estimated at 1.85 million barrels—after a legal process.

“The president considers the seizure of the oil tanker as effectuating the administration’s sanction policies,” Leavitt said.

The Treasury Department updated its Venezuela sanctions list on Thursday to include more than a dozen operators, people and tankers, targeting nephews of Maduro’s wife and a Maduro-affiliated businessman, among others.

The Skipper was sailing under a Guyana flag, but Guyana said it had no record of it. That makes the legal case for a seizure easier, said Tess Bridgeman, a former White House lawyer. She also said, however, that seizing ships is on the strongest footing when done under the auspices of a United Nations Security Council resolution in conjunction with other countries, and in this case, the U.S. appears to be taking action on its own.

In response to the seizure, Venezuela accused the U.S. of piracy. “We have to be like warriors, with one eye peeled and the other as well,” Maduro said at a rally Wednesday, calling on people to be “prepared to bust the teeth of the American empire if necessary.”

Venezuela learned to use black-market oil vessels from sanctioned allies like Iran and Russia after the U.S. tightened punitive measures in 2019 in a bid to cut off Maduro’s finances, said Juan Matias Szabo, a retired Venezuelan oil executive, who now works as an energy consultant in Spain.

The fleets have helped Venezuela move more than 600,000 barrels of oil a day to the handful of markets that still accept their crude, Szabo estimated. The majority ends up in China, often mixed with crude from other countries.

“It completely loses its origin,” said Szabo. “It’s ultraopaque.”

Venezuela has to foot transport costs and offer heavy discounts on its tar-like heavy crude to attract black-market buyers, meaning the oil sells for about half its listed price, diminishing income for Maduro. The transactions are often conducted in cash or on murky cryptocurrency exchanges, increasing risks for the regime.

Last year, Tareck el Aissami, a former oil minister, was arrested by Maduro’s government on allegations of embezzling billions of dollars in oil proceeds through crypto transactions. He hasn’t been heard from since his detention in April 2024.

Analysts said the surest outcome of squeezing Venezuela’s oil sales is that ordinary Venezuelans would suffer more. The Venezuelan strongman has used a mix of repression and food handouts to maintain control amid the country’s economic meltdown caused by a collapse in oil production.

“It would definitely harm Maduro, much more than these boat strikes,” said David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University. “But it would harm the population even more.”

Write to Ryan Dubé at ryan.dube@wsj.com, Shelby Holliday at shelby.holliday@wsj.com and Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com

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