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Nate Silver says it's still a dead heat- trust him over a fixable market - link
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| I'm gay tp | 10/16/24 |
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Date: October 16th, 2024 2:32 PM Author: ,.,,.,.,,,,,,..................... https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Polymarket is trending on Twitter- is it at all a stretch to think that Musk is betting big on Trump on Polymarket to hype him up? Wouldn't be illegal by any means, so why wouldn't he do it?
Nate Silver has been taking heat from both sides for a while now, and I tend to think he's approaching this in good faith. So I look at him as the most reliable indicator of where the election is now. |
Date: October 16th, 2024 2:35 PM Author: I'm gay tp You’re referring to Nate Silver of sucking dick at the Port Authority fame? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612613&forum_id=2#48204405) |
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Date: October 16th, 2024 2:35 PM Author: ..,,....,,.,..,,..,,...,...,,....,..., I'm very skeptical of his bias or supposed lack thereof after reading some of his comments (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612613&forum_id=2#48204407) |
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Date: October 16th, 2024 2:37 PM Author: ,.,,.,.,,,,,,..................... He strikes me as an autist - a true numbers guy. Guys like that care more about being mathematically correct than anything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612613&forum_id=2#48204414) |
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Date: October 16th, 2024 3:01 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; He hates Trump, but that is objectively logical and natural for a gay math nerd who is a creature of UMC coastal enclaves. The interesting thing about him is that he nonetheless has gone on a full blown :D-style Paultard journey toward a much more staunch type of libertarianism. And for a guy who is culturally a solid lib he still has much more skepticism of libs, Dems, identity politics, YOLO federal spending, Covid being a very instructive episode of the elite fucktardery and wild overreach, elite lib media censorship, etc. To me this orientation makes him uniquely capable of seeing sources of potential Dem weakness, even though he may struggle to understand or describe why Trump is appealing to his committed base. The nature of the appeal of Trump to his base is the most irrelevant factor in 2024 U.S. politics. The country has spent years obsessed with it and it’s been the most thoroughly stable element of the U.S. political scene for a decade now. The only interesting group of voters is the people who don’t feel the same way about Trump that his base does, but also recognizes that the Dems are really annoying and self-righteous and neurotic in a way that make a rational person doubt their fitness to lead the country and make good decisions. Silver is pretty tapped into that group and has done a pretty impressive job anticipating their reactions to new events this year in a way that has regularly clowned the MSM preferred polling commentators like Nate Cohn. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612613&forum_id=2#48204511) |
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Date: October 16th, 2024 3:09 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; This is the right map imo. PA, Wisc and Mich all toss ups (listed in order from most to least in their slight Kamala lean), NV roughly as lean Kamala as much as the average of the blue wall ie barely, and then GA and NC as the mirror image for Trump, ie both are very much toss ups, but Trump is slightly favored, and AZ is likely the clearest lean that’s more like 60/40 for Trump. I’d rather be Kamala than Trump, but that’s largely based on the assumption that she will get a benefit when the undecided break closer to Election Day. It’s very much AK v 88 like 52/48 overall. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5612613&forum_id=2#48204535) |