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CHIEFS +1.5 is free money
Poast new message in this thread
Date: January 24th, 2023 10:04 AM Author: Passionate institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45834086) |
Date: January 24th, 2023 10:06 AM Author: Diverse Frisky Mother Not betting on Mahomes’ gimpy leg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45834098) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:07 AM Author: Passionate institution Revenge game, chiefs home game and bengals fraudulent offensive line. the mulatto's leg is fine btw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45834107) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:09 AM Author: Diverse Frisky Mother Joe Burrow is a once in a generation talent and better than Mahomes. They also have more talent on offense and a better defense. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45834117) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:18 PM Author: Maize hyperventilating filthpig boltzmann Burrow isnt even better than Herbert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835635) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 9:35 PM Author: Territorial center Been saying this for years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837338) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:08 PM Author: Fragrant hunting ground meetinghouse lmao no
mahomes is special |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:12 PM Author: Aquamarine National burrow = brady mahomes = rodgers |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:21 PM Author: Salmon turdskin This analogy is too insulting to Burrow. And just bad altogether bc Mahomes is pure sandlot much more like Russell Wilson on his best day and Rodgers freakish ability is primarily a combo of arm strength, accuracy and balls. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837048) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 11:22 PM Author: Aquamarine National lol at being compared to brady being insulting.
and mahomes is nothing like wilson wth are you talking about. |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:14 PM Author: Salmon turdskin Burrow is awesome, and arguably a better playoff QB than Mahomes who is more of a stats machine, and I do worry that Mahomes’ leg could fuck this bet but OP is CR. Bengals defense is also fraud. The Browns with Brissett at QB scored 32 on those bitches. Between that and the OL injuries it’s absurd that the Bengals are favored on the road. Seems like an action-bait line designed to move 3+ points during the week. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837026) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:12 PM Author: Aquamarine National they already lost a "revenge game" to the bengals this season with a healthy mahomes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837016) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:17 PM Author: Maize hyperventilating filthpig boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835631) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:19 PM Author: insecure half-breed +2.5 now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835645) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:20 PM Author: Maniacal Pearl Boiling Water is there a bunch of bengals fans flooding in bets or something? chiefs are the better team by every conceivable metric. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835658) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:21 PM Author: Cordovan milk high ankle sprain is no joke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835661) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:23 PM Author: Maniacal Pearl Boiling Water ah i wasn't aware mahomes got injured. makes sense now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835668) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:26 PM Author: cream laughsome hominid Sharp money poured into the Bengals. It’s strange to see that big of a line move so early in the week on a big game with no obvious news. It seems the sharps think a) the Bengals are better than people realize, b) Mahomes’s injury is worse than reported, or c) both. The sharp money isn’t always right but it’s enough to scare me off the Chiefs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835685) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:28 PM Author: Slap-happy chapel How do you track who the sharps are betting on? Very interested in this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837579) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 8:32 AM Author: hot abode death wish You have to read line movements (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838619) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 2:23 PM Author: cream laughsome hominid Yeah, and when they occur. Line movements early in the week are usually sharps…they like to pounce early on lines they think are inaccurate. Also there are guys who track ratio of money bet to number of bets. The side with the higher ratio is usually the sharp side (sharps make fewer bets of large size; squares make more bets of small size). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45840289) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:24 PM Author: Mind-boggling foreskin home Losing to the Bengals three straight times says otherwise. I know the Bengals o-line is weak but Mahomes is hurt. The spread says that Vegas thinks they are equal teams. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835673) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:29 PM Author: Cordovan milk Spread absolutely does not say that Vegas thinks they're equal teams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835696) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:31 PM Author: insecure half-breed Right equal would be more like chiefs -2.5 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835715) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:32 PM Author: Mind-boggling foreskin home yeah-- I totally read that wrong. 2.5 for home team (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835726) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:33 PM Author: Cordovan milk I've read that HFA has been moving lower in recent years and it's more like 1.5 now. But Arrowhead probably confers more HFA than your average stadium. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835733) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:06 PM Author: Thirsty Buff Whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836991) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:33 PM Author: Maniacal Pearl Boiling Water superior teams lose to inferior teams all the time. otherwise we'd see perfect seasons frequently. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835736) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:34 PM Author: Mind-boggling foreskin home three times in a row? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835745) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:35 PM Author: Cordovan milk (guy who's never played poker) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835750) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:19 PM Author: Aqua Affirmative Action Parlor (Probability masterman) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837043) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 9:39 PM Author: Mind-boggling foreskin home Are you people retards? This isn't a game of chance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837352) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:56 PM Author: Aqua Affirmative Action Parlor Neither is baseball. Last place teams sweep first place teams all the time. Google “fooled by randomness” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837676) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 7:45 AM Author: Mind-boggling foreskin home listen. this is not hard. they beat them three times in a year with the same personnel. this is not baseball. more like basketball. i am not saying the chiefs can’t win, only that the statement that the chiefs are clearly the more talented team is not evidenced in the ONLY stat we have. head to head play. if Alabama beats Vanderbilt three times in a row no retard is gonna hurr durr say “totally random”. the chiefs and bengals are pretty evenly matched but don’t tell me the chiefs are the better team when the record from the past year doesn’t show it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838532) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 8:29 AM Author: Cordovan milk Sports games are absolutely exercises in weighted probability. Sports bettors know this, as does anyone with a background in statistics. An underdog beating a favorite three times in a row might cause you to update your priors (maybe this team is a uniquely bad matchup, or maybe the underdog really was the better team), but you might also chalk it up to variance.
I don't think it would be very hard to find past instances of a clearly inferior team beating a better team three times in a row. |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 8:43 AM Author: Aqua Affirmative Action Parlor Tcr. This dude’s misunderstanding of statistics is breathtaking. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838660) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:14 AM Author: Mind-boggling foreskin home GODDAMIT OF COURSE NOT!! THAT IS NOT THE POINT. Gunner says Chiefs are clearly the better team. I say, well they lost to Bengals three times in a row. Are YOU willing to bet that this is statistically meaningless? All I am saying is that a team, beating another team in football three times in a row is not statistically meaningless. Let's take TCU vs. Georgia. Let's give TCU a ten percent chance of beating Georgia given the talent. Out of 100 games is it possible for TCU to win three in a row? Absolutely. However, the chances that Georgia wins three in a row is higher. Now Bengals vs. Chiefs. Gunner says the Chiefs are better. OK. But they have played three times in a year and the Bengals have won all three. To me that hints at the Bengals being a better team. Maybe not. Maybe the Chiefs have a 60% chance of winning and we just happened upon three Bengals wins in a row. Not that out of the ordinary. Could be. But the chances are that the Bengals maybe are the better team, given ALL we know. Again, this is football not random chance. Usain Bolt is gonna win against some sprinter from Ireland 99.9% of the time. The Celtics are gonna beat the Wizards three times in a row more times than the Wiz are gonna beat the Celtics. Etc. So shut the FUCK UP math fags. |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:16 AM Author: Cordovan milk The point is this isn't TCU vs. Georgia or Usain Bolt vs. an Icelander. They're two relatively evenly matched teams, with the Chiefs being slightly better with a healthy Mahomes. Losing three times in a row as a 60/40 favorite happens all the fucking time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839001) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:18 AM Author: Mind-boggling foreskin home I KNOW THAT!! I said that in my poast and never denied it. You are saying the Chiefs are better based on what? That is the point. What are you basing that on? Instinct? Eyeball test? Because it can't be the games they actually played (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839011) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:20 AM Author: Cordovan milk I'm basing it on NFL point spreads, which are some of the most efficient lines across the universe of sports betting. Right now Vegas says the Bengals are slightly better, but that's because Mahomes is hurt. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839023) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:24 AM Author: Mind-boggling foreskin home and the Bengals whole O-Line is hurt. +2.5 is pretty ridiculous though (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839043) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:28 AM Author: Cordovan milk Healthy Mahomes, the line probably closes around KC -1.5, which would say the teams are effectively equal. Which I think is a fair adjustment based on the previous matchups. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839065) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 1:03 PM Author: Aqua Affirmative Action Parlor You don’t seem to understand that the results and advanced stats from dozens of games the teams have played over the past few years against teams other than each other, when combined, impact point spreads far more than the small number of head to head results (all 3 point games the chiefs led in the 4th quarter that were each a play away from going the opposite way). It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the chiefs are a healthy Mahomes away from being favored despite losing three close games in a row. TBH you sound really dumb ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839877) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 1:12 PM Author: Mind-boggling foreskin home Listen faggot, if I ever find out who you are and where you live, I am going to come over to your house, fuck your wife and beat you into a bloody pulp. You are not arguing in good faith. You just took Quotemo's argument-- where he legit responded to my poasts-- and repoasted it. Your argument above was "look at me" I understand probability statistics. You just popped in to the thread to brag about being some statheadnerdjew. You NEVER argued Vegas betting lines. Let me ask you something, do you think Vegas looks at those previous 3 games at all? Don't FUCKING tell me they don't. |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 1:38 PM Author: Aqua Affirmative Action Parlor Of course they do, which is part of why the line has fallen significantly from last year’s title game. However, I also don’t think that if Kelce had held on to that fumbled ball in the most recent game that today’s line would be even a half point different. I check lines every single day but didn’t bother bringing them up because one, this whole thread is about lines and two, the lines are what they are precisely because of the reasons I indicated. You kicked off this whole sub thread by implying Team A can’t be better than Team B when Team B has beaten Team A three times in a row, which is a strong sign you aren’t very bright. You also stated that there is no data that would indicate the Chiefs are the stronger team, which implies you don’t think every other game the teams have played matters, which also indicates you aren’t very bright. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45840070) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 1:41 PM Author: Mind-boggling foreskin home Implying. Implying. I was just challenging Gunner's statement that the Chiefs are clearly the better team (before he knew Mahomes was hurt). I stand by the statement that beating a team three times in the calendar year is not statistically meaningless when trying to determine which is the better team. I respect bookmakers as very knowledgeable but the game is played on the field, not in Vegas. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45840085) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 2:58 PM Author: Aqua Affirmative Action Parlor Nobody said it was meaningless, but your statements do imply it was determinative. You seem to have learned a lot from this thread, so I’m glad we could help. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45840510) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:34 PM Author: trip hall mahomes isnt even going to play. bengals all day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835737) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:35 PM Author: Maniacal Pearl Boiling Water he played the 2nd half last week. it doesn't seem so bad. i'm gonna plonk some money on the chiefs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835751) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:36 PM Author: trip hall high ankle sprain is an awful injury, usually keeps you out 4 weeks minimum. they jacked him full of drugs and he could barely hobble in the pocket for a half. he's gonna be fucked. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835761) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:38 PM Author: Maniacal Pearl Boiling Water it seems like one of those injuries where the severity really matters.
"The coach added that Mahomes' ankle injury "isn't quite as bad" as the one he suffered in the 2019 season opener against Jacksonville. Mahomes played the following week against the Raiders that season and threw for 443 yards and 4 TDs in the win."
https://www.nfl.com/news/chiefs-coach-andy-reid-qb-patrick-mahomes-ankle-doing-ok-has-mindset-to-play-vs- |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:40 PM Author: Cordovan milk He might be telling the truth, but I'm also not sure what else you'd expect him to say. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835789) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:42 PM Author: Maniacal Pearl Boiling Water sure, players and coaches talking about injuries is inherently biased. a high ankle sprain can be devastating or nbd. considering mahomes played the second half and reports are positive, it doesn't seem like he'll be too limited. you never know though. this is all reading tea leaves. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835799) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 9:39 PM Author: Territorial center If KC's run game gets going at all Mahomes just needs to throw it to Kelce on play actions and it's over. Dude can't be covered. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837354) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:37 PM Author: Cordovan milk His mobility is a yuge part of their offense. He's great at tucking and running when downfield routes are covered OR creating via scramble drill outside of the pocket. If he can't do those things very effectively, it's a problem. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835772) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:34 PM Author: Ungodly crackhouse legend xo Bengals are going to the Superbowl (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835739) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:34 PM Author: Cordovan milk Where they will get raeped by the Niners, just like old times (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835742) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:37 PM Author: 180 stage if you saw the chiefs last week you know there's no way mahomes isn't going to play. now the question is can he beat them at home after a week of treatment while getting 2.5 points? bengals destroyed the bills in buffalo, i don't think arrowhead will be much of a factor and chiefs have a so-so running game if mahomes can't throw. chiefs defense is also nothing special. i think bengals take this by at least a touchdown. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835771) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 7:57 PM Author: Passionate institution line is at +2.5 now. wow (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836955) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 7:59 PM Author: insecure half-breed Back to +1.5 on FanDuels (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836962) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:01 PM Author: Passionate institution we moved the lines not flame (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836969) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:29 PM Author: Slap-happy chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837583) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:01 PM Author: insane provocative associate windowlicker Bengals winning by 4 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836973) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:06 PM Author: Pearly pocket flask Chiefs will blow out the Bengals. Eagles will blow out the 49ers. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836989) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:13 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy vigorous lettuce weed whacker Didn’t u say the cowboys would beat the niners? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837022) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 9:31 PM Author: Cordovan milk yeah he doesn't learn very sad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837317) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 12:24 AM Author: Pearly pocket flask I did. Not sure what happened there, but it won't happen again. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838068) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 8:31 AM Author: Cordovan milk What happened was the 49ers gaped the Cowboys because they're the better team. The game wasn't as close as the score. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838618) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 2:29 PM Author: Pearly pocket flask Interesting theory, but the Eagles are much better than the 49ers. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45840311) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 2:31 PM Author: Cordovan milk Wrong! Bad take and retarded!
Let's do an avatar bet on this weekend's game, cr? |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:21 PM Author: Sooty Bisexual Range why wouldn't they just play CHAD henne. it's right there in the name (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837047) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 2:34 AM Author: tan racy voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838337) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:29 PM Author: nofapping rusted parlour becky I always bet for the whiter QB.
Easy money. |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:38 PM Author: Self-absorbed telephone son of senegal So do you like the Chiefs or Bengals? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837625) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:47 PM Author: nofapping rusted parlour becky 1488 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837649) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:51 PM Author: Self-absorbed telephone son of senegal So do you like the whitest black QB or the blackest most woke white QB? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837666) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:55 PM Author: nofapping rusted parlour becky https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/acd20553a024399a33e17795abcc18f632a57464/0_609_3735_4667/master/3735.jpg?width=700&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=a52a85aa3658ff2eb5a6e63023127230 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837674) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 11:57 PM Author: trip hall a mahomes man then, i see (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837945) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 12:12 AM Author: Maroon Glittery Keepsake Machete Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838020) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 12:11 AM Author: Mauve Nursing Home Regret https://i.pinimg.com/564x/60/7d/19/607d196326c766b9fd23c732868259af.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838014) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:29 PM Author: Floppy locale dont bet on the nfl. cfb or bust. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837587) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:35 PM Author: Self-absorbed telephone son of senegal Big Chiefs fan and I say no! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837613) |
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Date: January 26th, 2023 8:52 PM Author: Passionate institution CHIEFS NOW -1.5 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45847156) |
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Date: January 27th, 2023 10:28 AM Author: Cordovan milk Time to lock in the middle CR? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45848769) |
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Date: January 27th, 2023 10:51 AM Author: Passionate institution now Chiefs -2.0. hope everyone locked in the +1.5 so we can all make it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45848884) |
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Date: January 30th, 2023 2:18 AM Author: Maniacal Pearl Boiling Water easy $500 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45861241) |
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Date: January 30th, 2023 3:35 AM Author: Glassy vibrant striped hyena senate Nothing single game (like all the NFL shit) is free money NBA playoff series (sometimes) and NBA season awards (all the time) are free money |