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CHIEFS +1.5 is free money
Poast new message in this thread
Date: January 24th, 2023 10:04 AM Author: Very tactful center chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45834086) |
Date: January 24th, 2023 10:06 AM Author: multi-colored brunch Not betting on Mahomes’ gimpy leg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45834098) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:07 AM Author: Very tactful center chad Revenge game, chiefs home game and bengals fraudulent offensive line. the mulatto's leg is fine btw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45834107) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:09 AM Author: multi-colored brunch Joe Burrow is a once in a generation talent and better than Mahomes. They also have more talent on offense and a better defense. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45834117) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:18 PM Author: Abnormal naked piazza people who are hurt Burrow isnt even better than Herbert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835635) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 9:35 PM Author: Tripping vigorous international law enforcement agency Been saying this for years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837338) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:08 PM Author: Seedy aromatic quadroon lmao no
mahomes is special |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:12 PM Author: Rose cowardly pit burrow = brady mahomes = rodgers |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:21 PM Author: bearded heady messiness This analogy is too insulting to Burrow. And just bad altogether bc Mahomes is pure sandlot much more like Russell Wilson on his best day and Rodgers freakish ability is primarily a combo of arm strength, accuracy and balls. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837048) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 11:22 PM Author: Rose cowardly pit lol at being compared to brady being insulting.
and mahomes is nothing like wilson wth are you talking about. |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:14 PM Author: bearded heady messiness Burrow is awesome, and arguably a better playoff QB than Mahomes who is more of a stats machine, and I do worry that Mahomes’ leg could fuck this bet but OP is CR. Bengals defense is also fraud. The Browns with Brissett at QB scored 32 on those bitches. Between that and the OL injuries it’s absurd that the Bengals are favored on the road. Seems like an action-bait line designed to move 3+ points during the week. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837026) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:12 PM Author: Rose cowardly pit they already lost a "revenge game" to the bengals this season with a healthy mahomes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837016) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:17 PM Author: Abnormal naked piazza people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835631) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:19 PM Author: laughsome scourge upon the earth +2.5 now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835645) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:20 PM Author: ocher location giraffe is there a bunch of bengals fans flooding in bets or something? chiefs are the better team by every conceivable metric. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835658) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:21 PM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range high ankle sprain is no joke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835661) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:23 PM Author: ocher location giraffe ah i wasn't aware mahomes got injured. makes sense now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835668) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:26 PM Author: razzle mad-dog skullcap Sharp money poured into the Bengals. It’s strange to see that big of a line move so early in the week on a big game with no obvious news. It seems the sharps think a) the Bengals are better than people realize, b) Mahomes’s injury is worse than reported, or c) both. The sharp money isn’t always right but it’s enough to scare me off the Chiefs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835685) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:28 PM Author: lemon electric furnace How do you track who the sharps are betting on? Very interested in this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837579) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 8:32 AM Author: Chocolate bull headed stag film You have to read line movements (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838619) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 2:23 PM Author: razzle mad-dog skullcap Yeah, and when they occur. Line movements early in the week are usually sharps…they like to pounce early on lines they think are inaccurate. Also there are guys who track ratio of money bet to number of bets. The side with the higher ratio is usually the sharp side (sharps make fewer bets of large size; squares make more bets of small size). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45840289) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:24 PM Author: avocado cruel-hearted native Losing to the Bengals three straight times says otherwise. I know the Bengals o-line is weak but Mahomes is hurt. The spread says that Vegas thinks they are equal teams. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835673) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:29 PM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range Spread absolutely does not say that Vegas thinks they're equal teams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835696) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:31 PM Author: laughsome scourge upon the earth Right equal would be more like chiefs -2.5 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835715) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:32 PM Author: avocado cruel-hearted native yeah-- I totally read that wrong. 2.5 for home team (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835726) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:33 PM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range I've read that HFA has been moving lower in recent years and it's more like 1.5 now. But Arrowhead probably confers more HFA than your average stadium. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835733) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:06 PM Author: odious goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836991) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:33 PM Author: ocher location giraffe superior teams lose to inferior teams all the time. otherwise we'd see perfect seasons frequently. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835736) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:34 PM Author: avocado cruel-hearted native three times in a row? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835745) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:35 PM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range (guy who's never played poker) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835750) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:19 PM Author: Lavender school (Probability masterman) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837043) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 9:39 PM Author: avocado cruel-hearted native Are you people retards? This isn't a game of chance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837352) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:56 PM Author: Lavender school Neither is baseball. Last place teams sweep first place teams all the time. Google “fooled by randomness” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837676) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 7:45 AM Author: avocado cruel-hearted native listen. this is not hard. they beat them three times in a year with the same personnel. this is not baseball. more like basketball. i am not saying the chiefs can’t win, only that the statement that the chiefs are clearly the more talented team is not evidenced in the ONLY stat we have. head to head play. if Alabama beats Vanderbilt three times in a row no retard is gonna hurr durr say “totally random”. the chiefs and bengals are pretty evenly matched but don’t tell me the chiefs are the better team when the record from the past year doesn’t show it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838532) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 8:29 AM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range Sports games are absolutely exercises in weighted probability. Sports bettors know this, as does anyone with a background in statistics. An underdog beating a favorite three times in a row might cause you to update your priors (maybe this team is a uniquely bad matchup, or maybe the underdog really was the better team), but you might also chalk it up to variance.
I don't think it would be very hard to find past instances of a clearly inferior team beating a better team three times in a row. |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 8:43 AM Author: Lavender school Tcr. This dude’s misunderstanding of statistics is breathtaking. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838660) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:14 AM Author: avocado cruel-hearted native GODDAMIT OF COURSE NOT!! THAT IS NOT THE POINT. Gunner says Chiefs are clearly the better team. I say, well they lost to Bengals three times in a row. Are YOU willing to bet that this is statistically meaningless? All I am saying is that a team, beating another team in football three times in a row is not statistically meaningless. Let's take TCU vs. Georgia. Let's give TCU a ten percent chance of beating Georgia given the talent. Out of 100 games is it possible for TCU to win three in a row? Absolutely. However, the chances that Georgia wins three in a row is higher. Now Bengals vs. Chiefs. Gunner says the Chiefs are better. OK. But they have played three times in a year and the Bengals have won all three. To me that hints at the Bengals being a better team. Maybe not. Maybe the Chiefs have a 60% chance of winning and we just happened upon three Bengals wins in a row. Not that out of the ordinary. Could be. But the chances are that the Bengals maybe are the better team, given ALL we know. Again, this is football not random chance. Usain Bolt is gonna win against some sprinter from Ireland 99.9% of the time. The Celtics are gonna beat the Wizards three times in a row more times than the Wiz are gonna beat the Celtics. Etc. So shut the FUCK UP math fags. |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:16 AM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range The point is this isn't TCU vs. Georgia or Usain Bolt vs. an Icelander. They're two relatively evenly matched teams, with the Chiefs being slightly better with a healthy Mahomes. Losing three times in a row as a 60/40 favorite happens all the fucking time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839001) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:18 AM Author: avocado cruel-hearted native I KNOW THAT!! I said that in my poast and never denied it. You are saying the Chiefs are better based on what? That is the point. What are you basing that on? Instinct? Eyeball test? Because it can't be the games they actually played (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839011) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:20 AM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range I'm basing it on NFL point spreads, which are some of the most efficient lines across the universe of sports betting. Right now Vegas says the Bengals are slightly better, but that's because Mahomes is hurt. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839023) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:24 AM Author: avocado cruel-hearted native and the Bengals whole O-Line is hurt. +2.5 is pretty ridiculous though (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839043) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 10:28 AM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range Healthy Mahomes, the line probably closes around KC -1.5, which would say the teams are effectively equal. Which I think is a fair adjustment based on the previous matchups. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839065) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 1:03 PM Author: Lavender school You don’t seem to understand that the results and advanced stats from dozens of games the teams have played over the past few years against teams other than each other, when combined, impact point spreads far more than the small number of head to head results (all 3 point games the chiefs led in the 4th quarter that were each a play away from going the opposite way). It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the chiefs are a healthy Mahomes away from being favored despite losing three close games in a row. TBH you sound really dumb ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45839877) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 1:12 PM Author: avocado cruel-hearted native Listen faggot, if I ever find out who you are and where you live, I am going to come over to your house, fuck your wife and beat you into a bloody pulp. You are not arguing in good faith. You just took Quotemo's argument-- where he legit responded to my poasts-- and repoasted it. Your argument above was "look at me" I understand probability statistics. You just popped in to the thread to brag about being some statheadnerdjew. You NEVER argued Vegas betting lines. Let me ask you something, do you think Vegas looks at those previous 3 games at all? Don't FUCKING tell me they don't. |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 1:38 PM Author: Lavender school Of course they do, which is part of why the line has fallen significantly from last year’s title game. However, I also don’t think that if Kelce had held on to that fumbled ball in the most recent game that today’s line would be even a half point different. I check lines every single day but didn’t bother bringing them up because one, this whole thread is about lines and two, the lines are what they are precisely because of the reasons I indicated. You kicked off this whole sub thread by implying Team A can’t be better than Team B when Team B has beaten Team A three times in a row, which is a strong sign you aren’t very bright. You also stated that there is no data that would indicate the Chiefs are the stronger team, which implies you don’t think every other game the teams have played matters, which also indicates you aren’t very bright. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45840070) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 1:41 PM Author: avocado cruel-hearted native Implying. Implying. I was just challenging Gunner's statement that the Chiefs are clearly the better team (before he knew Mahomes was hurt). I stand by the statement that beating a team three times in the calendar year is not statistically meaningless when trying to determine which is the better team. I respect bookmakers as very knowledgeable but the game is played on the field, not in Vegas. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45840085) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 2:58 PM Author: Lavender school Nobody said it was meaningless, but your statements do imply it was determinative. You seem to have learned a lot from this thread, so I’m glad we could help. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45840510) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:34 PM Author: indecent tan lay legend mahomes isnt even going to play. bengals all day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835737) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:35 PM Author: ocher location giraffe he played the 2nd half last week. it doesn't seem so bad. i'm gonna plonk some money on the chiefs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835751) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:36 PM Author: indecent tan lay legend high ankle sprain is an awful injury, usually keeps you out 4 weeks minimum. they jacked him full of drugs and he could barely hobble in the pocket for a half. he's gonna be fucked. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835761) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:38 PM Author: ocher location giraffe it seems like one of those injuries where the severity really matters.
"The coach added that Mahomes' ankle injury "isn't quite as bad" as the one he suffered in the 2019 season opener against Jacksonville. Mahomes played the following week against the Raiders that season and threw for 443 yards and 4 TDs in the win."
https://www.nfl.com/news/chiefs-coach-andy-reid-qb-patrick-mahomes-ankle-doing-ok-has-mindset-to-play-vs- |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:40 PM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range He might be telling the truth, but I'm also not sure what else you'd expect him to say. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835789) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:42 PM Author: ocher location giraffe sure, players and coaches talking about injuries is inherently biased. a high ankle sprain can be devastating or nbd. considering mahomes played the second half and reports are positive, it doesn't seem like he'll be too limited. you never know though. this is all reading tea leaves. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835799) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 9:39 PM Author: Tripping vigorous international law enforcement agency If KC's run game gets going at all Mahomes just needs to throw it to Kelce on play actions and it's over. Dude can't be covered. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837354) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:37 PM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range His mobility is a yuge part of their offense. He's great at tucking and running when downfield routes are covered OR creating via scramble drill outside of the pocket. If he can't do those things very effectively, it's a problem. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835772) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:34 PM Author: Maniacal ungodly school cafeteria xo Bengals are going to the Superbowl (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835739) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:34 PM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range Where they will get raeped by the Niners, just like old times (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835742) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 3:37 PM Author: Impertinent adventurous brethren if you saw the chiefs last week you know there's no way mahomes isn't going to play. now the question is can he beat them at home after a week of treatment while getting 2.5 points? bengals destroyed the bills in buffalo, i don't think arrowhead will be much of a factor and chiefs have a so-so running game if mahomes can't throw. chiefs defense is also nothing special. i think bengals take this by at least a touchdown. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45835771) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 7:57 PM Author: Very tactful center chad line is at +2.5 now. wow (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836955) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 7:59 PM Author: laughsome scourge upon the earth Back to +1.5 on FanDuels (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836962) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:01 PM Author: Very tactful center chad we moved the lines not flame (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836969) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:29 PM Author: lemon electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837583) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:01 PM Author: hairraiser blood rage Bengals winning by 4 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836973) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:06 PM Author: Mahogany Irradiated Useless Brakes New Version Chiefs will blow out the Bengals. Eagles will blow out the 49ers. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45836989) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:13 PM Author: provocative translucent box office Didn’t u say the cowboys would beat the niners? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837022) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 9:31 PM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range yeah he doesn't learn very sad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837317) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 12:24 AM Author: Mahogany Irradiated Useless Brakes New Version I did. Not sure what happened there, but it won't happen again. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838068) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 8:31 AM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range What happened was the 49ers gaped the Cowboys because they're the better team. The game wasn't as close as the score. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838618) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 2:29 PM Author: Mahogany Irradiated Useless Brakes New Version Interesting theory, but the Eagles are much better than the 49ers. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45840311) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 2:31 PM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range Wrong! Bad take and retarded!
Let's do an avatar bet on this weekend's game, cr? |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 8:21 PM Author: Nofapping big faggot firefighter cruise ship why wouldn't they just play CHAD henne. it's right there in the name (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837047) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 2:34 AM Author: Fragrant ruddy gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838337) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:29 PM Author: Cracking sooty crotch marketing idea I always bet for the whiter QB.
Easy money. |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:38 PM Author: autistic community account So do you like the Chiefs or Bengals? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837625) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:47 PM Author: Cracking sooty crotch marketing idea 1488 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837649) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:51 PM Author: autistic community account So do you like the whitest black QB or the blackest most woke white QB? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837666) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:55 PM Author: Cracking sooty crotch marketing idea https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/acd20553a024399a33e17795abcc18f632a57464/0_609_3735_4667/master/3735.jpg?width=700&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=a52a85aa3658ff2eb5a6e63023127230 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837674) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 11:57 PM Author: indecent tan lay legend a mahomes man then, i see (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837945) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 12:12 AM Author: Vibrant Corner Trump Supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838020) |
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Date: January 25th, 2023 12:11 AM Author: chartreuse goyim hairy legs https://i.pinimg.com/564x/60/7d/19/607d196326c766b9fd23c732868259af.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45838014) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:29 PM Author: lake lettuce dont bet on the nfl. cfb or bust. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837587) |
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Date: January 24th, 2023 10:35 PM Author: autistic community account Big Chiefs fan and I say no! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45837613) |
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Date: January 26th, 2023 8:52 PM Author: Very tactful center chad CHIEFS NOW -1.5 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45847156) |
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Date: January 27th, 2023 10:28 AM Author: Opaque bat-shit-crazy range Time to lock in the middle CR? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45848769) |
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Date: January 27th, 2023 10:51 AM Author: Very tactful center chad now Chiefs -2.0. hope everyone locked in the +1.5 so we can all make it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45848884) |
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Date: January 30th, 2023 2:18 AM Author: ocher location giraffe easy $500 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5276784&forum_id=2#45861241) |
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Date: January 30th, 2023 3:35 AM Author: Sapphire Zippy Dopamine Nothing single game (like all the NFL shit) is free money NBA playoff series (sometimes) and NBA season awards (all the time) are free money |