The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
30 year bond yields highest since 2007 - link
Poast new message in this thread
Date: May 19th, 2026 10:14 AM Author: irradiated slippery hairy legs library https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2056739067732115899 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49889959) |
 |
Date: May 19th, 2026 10:58 AM Author: Dull duck-like dog poop why are you a pedo? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49890042) |
Date: May 19th, 2026 10:15 AM Author: Adulterous exhilarant pocket flask senate Perfectly timed with Amex slashing their HYSA yield this morning by yet another 10 bps. Fucking kikes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49889960) |
|
Date: May 19th, 2026 10:30 AM Author: Erotic Shrine Clown what does that mean? buy? or sell? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49889989) |
|
Date: May 19th, 2026 10:32 AM Author: Mauve national security agency tough call. structurally it seems like it has to get worse, maybe even much worse, in order to force congress to have some fiscal responsibility. otoh, the fed has jumped in before and will probably do so again, most analysts say around 6% is the upper limit for gov't to function at current debt levels so that's where you can expect QE to start. but it needs to go to 10%+ and crush everything for years so we can get back to reality. and if you buy at 5% and it goes to 10% you're dead in the water. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49889997) |
|
Date: May 19th, 2026 10:33 AM Author: irradiated slippery hairy legs library High bond yields are generally a sell sign for risk equities since the higher a guaranteed return you can get from bonds, the harder it is to justify risking money on stocks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49890001) |
|
Date: May 19th, 2026 11:03 AM Author: Mind-boggling lay persian stocks need to tank 10% RIGHT NOW (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49890054) |
|
Date: May 19th, 2026 8:52 PM Author: Frisky multi-colored rehab candlestick maker Wait two weeks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49890841) |
|
Date: May 19th, 2026 10:30 AM Author: Low-t Apoplectic Orchestra Pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49889991) |
|
Date: May 19th, 2026 10:54 AM Author: Swashbuckling cruel-hearted hominid the repricing of long term debt is headline financial news (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49890033) |
|
Date: May 19th, 2026 10:58 AM Author: Dull duck-like dog poop so it's basically at the same price it was in 2023 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49890040) |
|
Date: May 19th, 2026 11:04 AM Author: Mind-boggling lay persian completely lolzy that HIGH IQ trump thru tariffs and iran has compeltely destroyed the US economy but CNBC, CEO's, etc etc too scared to callhim out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49890056) |
|
Date: May 19th, 2026 11:10 AM Author: Dull duck-like dog poop you've literally been saying the US economy has been destroyed for 20 years and you are brown. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49890071) |
|
Date: May 19th, 2026 11:12 AM Author: Cerebral range crazy how high this market got and it's still barely selling off with this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49890075) |
|
Date: May 20th, 2026 3:03 PM Author: irradiated slippery hairy legs library Good summary:
https://x.com/_The_Prophet__/status/2056793139063779755
The U.S. 30Y at ~5.18% is the market beginning to price fiscal dominance.
Before policymakers are willing to admit fiscal dominance exists.
This is the long end saying the old deal is gone.
For years, Washington could run deficits, inflate asset prices, expand entitlement obligations, fund wars, subsidize industry, push reshoring, support housing, and assume the bond market would eventually cooperate because inflation would fade and the Fed could cut.
Now the market is asking for a real price to finance the regime.
That is why this matters. The 30Y is not just another rate. It is the market’s judgment on long-term trust: inflation credibility, fiscal trajectory, Treasury supply, foreign demand, currency stability, and whether buyers believe they are being compensated for holding U.S. promises across decades.
At 5%+, the long bond starts changing behavior everywhere.
Housing cannot clear normally. CRE refinancing gets uglier. Private credit gets more fragile. Long-duration equities lose air. AI capex gets a higher hurdle rate. Federal interest expense gets louder. Banks, pensions, insurers, and leveraged investors have to respect duration again. The discount rate stops being background noise and becomes the central constraint.
The deeper problem is that the U.S. political system still wants a cheap-money world. It wants strong asset prices, lower mortgage rates, industrial policy, defense spending, AI infrastructure, tariff leverage, fiscal expansion, and consumer resilience. The bond market is saying those promises now compete for scarce capital.
That is the fracture.
This goes toward intervention. The system will not calmly accept a long-term free-market repricing of sovereign duration. Too much breaks. The likely path is pressure first, then disguised control: more bill-heavy issuance, buybacks, QT changes, liquidity tools, regulatory incentives for banks to hold Treasuries, and eventually deeper Treasury-Fed coordination.
They will not call it yield curve control.
The function will rhyme. |
|
Date: May 20th, 2026 3:19 PM Author: Hairless space macaca 180. We're going to make so much money! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5867460&forum_id=2#49891946) |