Hypo: You walk every at bat. Could you make an MLB team? Start?
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Date: May 9th, 2025 1:14 PM Author: Lilac resort prole
Every* at bat you have, you will draw a walk, provided that you stand in the batter's box for each pitch, close enough to the plate that you would be able to swing and cover the entire strike zone with a 33 inch bat, if you chose to swing, which you won't. You'll take 4 pitches and walk each* time.
The asterisk is that you'll occasionally get hit by a pitch, in line with the MLB average, which is about 1% of the time.
Other than your preternatural ability to draw walks, you're you, in terms of base running, fielding, susceptibility to injury, etc.
Could you make an MLB roster? Earn a starting role?
Side question: How valuable would a player be if he waked each time and was as good in the field and as a base runner as the average starting MLB outfielder?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48917075) |
Date: May 9th, 2025 1:39 PM Author: salmon contagious space
There are two ways to do this:
First is optimize your physique for baserunning, where (despite the classic-xo "you'd get thrown out every time" athletic defeatism) you could probably become above-average at stealing. (The physique needed for hitting is nowhere close to ideal for baserunning; there's a good YT video on this that goes through this compellingly.) With constant practice, you could become a bad-but-probably-not-worst-in-the-league fielder; it'd be interesting to see where they stuck you (1B would be good if they don't already have a power hitter there). Fielding also doesn't decline with age like most other skills (arm does, though, which is why 1B would be ideal). Your bat is only ever used for occasional bunting (and to stick up your ass).
Second is you get big as fuck and become a pure power hitter. You get to go to an 0-2 count and still take 4 balls, so there's no penalty to taking two big-ass almost-certain-to-miss upward tomahawk swings at 2 pitches.
Either way, you could keep a starting spot on a roster into your fucking 60s doing this.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48917177) |
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Date: May 9th, 2025 1:53 PM Author: Lilac resort prole
In terms of getting to be a power hitter:
(1) Don't fight the hypo. You walk on four pitches each plate appearance. No swinging.
(2) LJL at any poster (who didn't play a little SEC ball in college), at any point in a thousand life times, getting good enough to where swinging would be anywhere close to plus-EV over a guaranteed walk. Most actual MLB players would be better off taking a guaranteed walk than swinging, except in certain scenarios, like runner in scoring position, no outs, just smash the ball and hope for an HR or sac fly.
Optimizing for baserunning is credited. I think an intelligent, in shape 40 year old could definitely steal a few bases.
You would definitely play RF, DH, or pinch hit only. Again, LJL at a presumably right-handed poster being good enough to handle stretching out to catch a bullet from the third baseman while keeping a foot on the bag, multiple times a game, on critical plays.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48917214) |
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Date: May 9th, 2025 2:14 PM Author: salmon contagious space
I mean, it depends on what the parameters of the hypo are: if taking a swing loses you your walk, then yes you're very obviously correct (and would be correct even for actual MLB players, let alone litigators); in that case, you look at the rules and see if you're even required to bring a bat up there--if so, all it ever gets used for is 'showing bunt' a handful of times early in the season before taking your ball.
If you get 2 freebie strikes before taking your BB, I think it becomes an interesting question whether it can be +EV to swing. There will obviously be situations where it wouldn't be, of course, but let's assume leadoff hitter of the game (no one on base, score 0-0). I'll note that it very clearly WOULD be highly +EV for a real mlb'er--the *vast* majority of the negative value of swinging comes from (1) the direct cost of the strike (which is zero to you); and (2) the costs of swinging in such a way as to minimize the odds of a strike, thus creating contact that's more apt to result in an out.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48917288) |
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Date: May 10th, 2025 12:20 AM Author: salmon contagious space
Isn't this just a close variant on the "swing on 3-0?" question, with the differences almost all running in my favor? (I.e., a hitter on 3-0 still does have to worry about striking out.) You would certainly agree that the swing selectivity and swing type you'd opt for in the hypo resembles 3-0 swings more than anything else, right?
Useless ChatGPT couldn't give me stats on 3-0 balls put into play, but I found an article with the following:
* "The Rays only put six balls in play on 3-0 counts in 2011, four of them hits -- a single, a double and two home runs."
* Arizona went "8-for-15 with four homers and a double" on 3-0 counts.
* "Outfielder Justin Upton went 5-for-8 with three homers and a double when he swung away on 3-0 counts last season."
* "[T]he Yankees have gone 2-for-2 with 64 walks in 66 plate appearances that ended with a 3-0 count."
https://www.mlb.com/news/different-theories-surround-green-light-on-3-0-count/c-34488650
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48918748) |
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Date: May 9th, 2025 5:00 PM Author: Lilac resort prole
I don't think you'd be the highest paid player. The value to an MLB team of a middle-aged lawyer reaching first on a walk is way lower than the value of an MLB player reaching, never mind reaching on a mix of hits and walks.
Several players have OPS's at or above 1.000. And: Most of the plate appearances that contribute to those OPS's for them involve runners ahead of them on the bases being able to advance more (i.e., they're hits, not walks); they're better bases runners than any poster; they can actually play in the field.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48917783)
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Date: May 9th, 2025 3:50 PM Author: Azure bateful boltzmann
I’m just lmaoing at the idiot poster in this thread thinking an XOer can work on his fielding when absolute piss missiles are hit at him anywhere in the infield or the first time he actually sees a major league fly ball go up into orbit. I remember my first fall game in JUCO and some monster hit a fly ball while I was playing right field and I was like holy shit this isn’t high school anymore. The ball looked like it disappeared in the sky before I found it again. And I played my whole life.
Also was a shortstop in HS and played outfield at my JUCO then my shitty college. Ground balls get tricky as fuck in college. Guys absolutely stroke the ball. I’m imagining some XOer smoothly fielding a ground ball and throwing it to first in time to get the runner.
That brings me to the next point why I played Right field (then centerfield starting my sophomore year). In the Fall of my freshman year I was an amazing fielder (glove work-wise)—I remember backhanding a ball in the hole during an intersquad game (before I was told to buy an outfield glove) and throwing it to first. Perfect throw and the guy beat it out. I was embarrassed as fuck. But guys are super fast starting in college (and this was fuckin JUCO). And the funniest thing about it is I had a good enough arm to play right field and throw runners out at third. The problem is that in the infield you need every split second, a perfect throw that doesn’t tail at all, and a quick release. Thankfully I could hit and got a spot in the outfield where all high school infielders who can hit at shitty college level go to die.
So lmao at the fuckin idiots in this thread who think in the mother fuckin big leagues they can maneuver this hypothetical as anything other than DH. And the manager/coach is going to shit his pants every time you get on base worrying that the catcher is going to throw a dart to first and nail you as your fat lawyer body tries to get back to 1st.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48917516) |
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Date: May 9th, 2025 6:47 PM Author: Lilac resort prole
Everyone knows you will walk every plate appearance--so long as you can stand in there and take 4 pitches, and with the 1%-ish chance of a HBP. You don't need to prove anything or try out, in terms of reaching base. Managers, GMs, etc. all know you walk in 4 pitches every time.
Beyond that, nothing is guaranteed. A manger could bench you because he doesn't like the cut of your jib. Fielding and base running are up to you.
And that's really the hypo: The GM knows you always walk. Will he sign you? The manager knows you always walk. How much will he play you? How much are you worth to the team?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48917982) |
Date: May 9th, 2025 5:32 PM Author: amethyst field hominid
You would be inner circle hall of fame and perennially robbed for MVP awards by flashier players.
https://imgur.com/a/S45cbBU
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48917836) |
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Date: May 9th, 2025 6:53 PM Author: Lilac resort prole
180.
But--Do you really think you're as valuable to a team as an Ohtani/Judge-level player, the other guys in the 10 WAR ballpark?
The sorcery that calculates a fancystat like WAR probably can't sufficiently account for something as extreme as you walk everytime and then it's a 40-year old lawyer with short legs on base.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48917990) |
Date: May 9th, 2025 11:19 PM Author: Lavender high-end degenerate
This thread reminds me of this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwMfT2cZGHg
If you don't want to take the time to watch it, the conclusion is that even if Barry Bonds never swung his bat, he would have been one of the top players in the league simply by virtue of the number of walks he drew. And in his best season, he had an OBP of about .600. An OBP of 1.000 is insane.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48918641) |
Date: May 10th, 2025 2:31 AM Author: Exciting orchestra pit
lmao at the retarded takes here
A guy who is a guaranteed walk every PA is the most valuable player in the league, hth.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48918858) |
Date: May 10th, 2025 1:04 PM Author: Motley Autistic Locus
ChatGPT deep research says if you had average baserunning you'd be the greatest player of all time.
Assuming you were a balding lawmo on the other hand you'd make a roster and would be a DH.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48919514) |
Date: May 10th, 2025 3:29 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone partner tanning salon
how has nobody in this thread mentioned eddie gaedel yet?
3'7 midget, 1 career PA, 1 BB.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gaedeed01.shtml
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Gaedel
St. Louis Browns owner Bill Veeck, in his 1962 autobiography Veeck – As in Wreck, said of Gaedel, "He was, by golly, the best darn midget who ever played big-league ball. He was also the only one."[3]
--
After this event, the MLB commissioner got the right to veto any contract before the player would get to a game, thereby ending midgets de facto, as nobody was gonna try it, figuring the commish would just stop it.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5722774&forum_id=2#48919802) |
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