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How long before Electric vehicles take over majority of the automobile market

Want to see if I should hold off on buying a new honda civic
avocado big temple
  05/08/21
...
avocado big temple
  05/08/21
3-5 years
exciting turdskin
  05/08/21
If you're offering even odds on 5 years, I'm betting everyth...
honey-headed laughsome church
  05/08/21
ok
exciting turdskin
  05/09/21
The average age of a car is like 10 years so it will take at...
irate filthy new version
  05/09/21
thats true. i guess i was thinking market = new cars -- star...
exciting turdskin
  05/09/21
I'd take the same bet even under your interpretation. Bei...
honey-headed laughsome church
  05/09/21
brah all apartments have chargers in them, and people living...
exciting turdskin
  05/09/21
ive never seen an apartment with chargers
Insanely creepy stirring degenerate
  05/09/21
there is a federal tax incentive. every new one has them
exciting turdskin
  05/09/21
If you're counting on apartment development, you better get ...
honey-headed laughsome church
  05/09/21
It's not even remotely close to true that all apartments hav...
honey-headed laughsome church
  05/09/21
you realize that not everyone in america lives in a city or ...
Vivacious bull headed den idea he suggested
  05/09/21
stfu you bald faggot
Frozen ratface
  05/09/21
...
fishy home tank
  05/09/21
...
Vivacious bull headed den idea he suggested
  05/09/21
...
Massive Center Queen Of The Night
  05/09/21
I would say 0% chance in the next 10 years. My brother boug...
brass school psychic
  05/09/21
i dont get this. unless youre driving around 24/7 or somethi...
exciting turdskin
  05/09/21
Proles drive like 500 miles/week minimum and are very sponta...
irate filthy new version
  05/09/21
yeah also if the car doesnt burn things its gay double ga...
Massive Center Queen Of The Night
  05/09/21
180. But they’ve made most cars so gay that a Tesla is...
irate filthy new version
  05/09/21
https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-debuts-all-electric-suv-...
exciting turdskin
  05/09/21
There's a small chance they could be the majority of automob...
Charismatic ebony toilet seat therapy
  05/09/21
once batteries get cheaper, elec cars should be a LOT cheape...
thriller set
  05/09/21
Batteries are already beating the estimates on the cost curv...
Charismatic ebony toilet seat therapy
  05/09/21
...
ruddy pozpig
  10/13/21
I think 30% in 2030 is way too low of an estimate. I wouldn'...
black jap
  10/14/21
There's a very good chance that within 10 years we'll have e...
Odious know-it-all black woman
  05/09/21
3 years ago I was halfassedly shopping for a car and dismiss...
pink striped hyena
  05/09/21
This isn't because of your new gig?
passionate hairy legs ticket booth
  05/09/21
Ok maybe a little
pink striped hyena
  05/09/21
Probably quicker in a bunch foreign countries that are not n...
Galvanic chestnut skinny woman parlour
  05/09/21
So don’t buy a new a Honda Civic?
avocado big temple
  05/09/21
Never. People forget that this “fad” already...
Ruby stimulating corn cake
  10/13/21


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: May 8th, 2021 8:55 PM
Author: avocado big temple

Want to see if I should hold off on buying a new honda civic

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42426672)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 8th, 2021 11:55 PM
Author: avocado big temple



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427780)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 8th, 2021 11:57 PM
Author: exciting turdskin

3-5 years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427799)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 8th, 2021 11:59 PM
Author: honey-headed laughsome church

If you're offering even odds on 5 years, I'm betting everything I have and can get a hold of on the other side.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427811)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:07 AM
Author: exciting turdskin

ok

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427890)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:43 AM
Author: irate filthy new version

The average age of a car is like 10 years so it will take at least that long.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42428110)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:48 AM
Author: exciting turdskin

thats true. i guess i was thinking market = new cars -- starting in 2021/2022 every major car company with have at least a few fully electric vehicles in their lineup. soon we will have fully electric silverados/F350s for example. they will likley have better performance and cost less than ICE alternatives. wouldnt be surprised if biden admin tries to incentive more charging infrastructure for EVs

mercedes, porsche, audi, will all have a significant portion of their fleets become EVs in 2021/2022 https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g29994375/future-electric-cars-trucks/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42428130)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:06 PM
Author: honey-headed laughsome church

I'd take the same bet even under your interpretation.

Being generous to your view, you've got a hard short-term cap of like 70% EV adoption just based on the people who rent. That means you need about 70% of all remaining sales to be EV. Not gonna happen. Not even close. Range anxiety is still a problem. Charging infrastructure is still shit. And EVs are more expensive for consumers and less profitable for manufacturers. Five years is just way too ambitious.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42429942)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:23 PM
Author: exciting turdskin

brah all apartments have chargers in them, and people living in apartments dont live in ARE, not the same range issues

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430003)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:43 PM
Author: Insanely creepy stirring degenerate

ive never seen an apartment with chargers



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430054)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:48 PM
Author: exciting turdskin

there is a federal tax incentive. every new one has them

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430063)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 2:14 PM
Author: honey-headed laughsome church

If you're counting on apartment development, you better get them moving. It takes a few years to build an apartment complex. And you're going to need a LOT more new apartments with far more chargers than is typical in new apartments now.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430168)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:43 PM
Author: honey-headed laughsome church

It's not even remotely close to true that all apartments have chargers, much less the number needed to support 50% EV adoption. Rather, some new complexes have a couple just so they can say they're one of the cool kids.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430055)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 2:16 PM
Author: Vivacious bull headed den idea he suggested

you realize that not everyone in america lives in a city or anywhere near ev infrastructure, and even then not everyone wants electric?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430180)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 9:46 PM
Author: Frozen ratface

stfu you bald faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42432033)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 12:08 AM
Author: fishy home tank



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427900)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 12:12 AM
Author: Vivacious bull headed den idea he suggested



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427927)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 12:24 AM
Author: Massive Center Queen Of The Night



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427994)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 12:11 AM
Author: brass school psychic

I would say 0% chance in the next 10 years. My brother bought two Teslas (S and 3) and for years sang their praises about how great they were. Then he bought a gasoline powered BMW and said it was much better. Electric cars require a change in your lifestyle and driving habits to accommodate their severe limitations, and they cost a lot more than gasoline powered cars.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427920)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:16 AM
Author: exciting turdskin

i dont get this. unless youre driving around 24/7 or something you only have to charge the tesla over night like once a week

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427955)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:23 AM
Author: irate filthy new version

Proles drive like 500 miles/week minimum and are very spontaneous

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427990)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:25 AM
Author: Massive Center Queen Of The Night

yeah also if the car doesnt burn things its gay

double gay if it has cameras all over it

triple gay if it parallel parks/avoids smashing into other cars for you

vehicle ownership is pretty much the last point of pride/not being gay that most americans have, but the elites are gaying up all of our cars and are trying to make the driving experience entirely gynocentric and, as it seems to increasingly be the case, sinocentric

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42428005)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:41 AM
Author: irate filthy new version

180. But they’ve made most cars so gay that a Tesla is actually less gay

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42428100)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:45 PM
Author: exciting turdskin

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-debuts-all-electric-suv-concept/

"Electrified product portfolio to expand to around 70 models globally by 2025; including 15 new battery electric vehicles, of which, seven will be Toyota bZ models"

any doubts that toyota will pwn the fuck out of tesla?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42429851)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 1:34 PM
Author: Charismatic ebony toilet seat therapy

There's a small chance they could be the majority of automobiles sold in 2030. I would bet they are at ~30% by then. Average age of a car is about 11 years, so tack on 15-20 years to that to figure out when most cars on the road will be electric.

An underrated factor is that American incomes aren't following automobile price increases (which increase roughly at the rate of inflation). It's possible that this is a major drag on EV adoption, since they cost a lot more money.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430034)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 1:51 PM
Author: thriller set

once batteries get cheaper, elec cars should be a LOT cheaper....the drive train is so much simpler

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430073)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 3:32 PM
Author: Charismatic ebony toilet seat therapy

Batteries are already beating the estimates on the cost curve. The problem is that they are still expensive, and cost reductions encourage automakers to just put more batteries in the cars lol.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430435)



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Date: October 13th, 2021 11:47 PM
Author: ruddy pozpig



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#43268794)



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Date: October 14th, 2021 12:35 AM
Author: black jap

I think 30% in 2030 is way too low of an estimate. I wouldn't be surprised if it is no longer possible to buy an ICE car by 2030. The cost of an electric car compared to an ICE car is dropping rapidly, and electric cars are already superior to ICE cars on most metrics other than price and driving range. Soon electric cars will be comparable or better to ICE cars by these metrics as well, at which point the ICE will be completely obsolete. It do agree that it will be much longer before there are no more ICE cars on the road, though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#43268991)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 1:41 PM
Author: Odious know-it-all black woman

There's a very good chance that within 10 years we'll have ev batteries with at least twice the capacity and many times the charging speeding. Cheaper, too, of course as competition and economies of scale become big factors. At some point, the price will get low enough that with tax credits it'll be a no-brainer

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430048)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 1:52 PM
Author: pink striped hyena

3 years ago I was halfassedly shopping for a car and dismissed electric as not quite there yet. Now I wouldn't buy anything that isn't electric. Things move fast.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430079)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 2:15 PM
Author: passionate hairy legs ticket booth

This isn't because of your new gig?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430174)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 2:17 PM
Author: pink striped hyena

Ok maybe a little

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430185)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 2:24 PM
Author: Galvanic chestnut skinny woman parlour

Probably quicker in a bunch foreign countries that are not named the United States. For countries with smog problems it’s more urgent. Plus our economy remains dependent on oil in many more ways that a bunch of other places.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430214)



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Date: May 9th, 2021 9:20 PM
Author: avocado big temple

So don’t buy a new a Honda Civic?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42431899)



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Date: October 13th, 2021 11:50 PM
Author: Ruby stimulating corn cake

Never.

People forget that this “fad” already happened once in the late 1980s.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#43268817)