\
  The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
BackRefresh Options Favorite

How long before Electric vehicles take over majority of the automobile market

Want to see if I should hold off on buying a new honda civic
Floppy Jap Crotch
  05/08/21
...
Floppy Jap Crotch
  05/08/21
3-5 years
irate chad
  05/08/21
If you're offering even odds on 5 years, I'm betting everyth...
Aggressive impertinent people who are hurt theatre
  05/08/21
ok
irate chad
  05/09/21
The average age of a car is like 10 years so it will take at...
Motley seedy stage pozpig
  05/09/21
thats true. i guess i was thinking market = new cars -- star...
irate chad
  05/09/21
I'd take the same bet even under your interpretation. Bei...
Aggressive impertinent people who are hurt theatre
  05/09/21
brah all apartments have chargers in them, and people living...
irate chad
  05/09/21
ive never seen an apartment with chargers
Swashbuckling cobalt point
  05/09/21
there is a federal tax incentive. every new one has them
irate chad
  05/09/21
If you're counting on apartment development, you better get ...
Aggressive impertinent people who are hurt theatre
  05/09/21
It's not even remotely close to true that all apartments hav...
Aggressive impertinent people who are hurt theatre
  05/09/21
you realize that not everyone in america lives in a city or ...
Snowy exhilarant trailer park roommate
  05/09/21
stfu you bald faggot
big box office
  05/09/21
...
Lilac Sanctuary Mother
  05/09/21
...
Snowy exhilarant trailer park roommate
  05/09/21
...
Maize naked giraffe
  05/09/21
I would say 0% chance in the next 10 years. My brother boug...
well-lubricated goal in life regret
  05/09/21
i dont get this. unless youre driving around 24/7 or somethi...
irate chad
  05/09/21
Proles drive like 500 miles/week minimum and are very sponta...
Motley seedy stage pozpig
  05/09/21
yeah also if the car doesnt burn things its gay double ga...
Maize naked giraffe
  05/09/21
180. But they’ve made most cars so gay that a Tesla is...
Motley seedy stage pozpig
  05/09/21
https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-debuts-all-electric-suv-...
irate chad
  05/09/21
There's a small chance they could be the majority of automob...
Diverse Crystalline Organic Girlfriend Codepig
  05/09/21
once batteries get cheaper, elec cars should be a LOT cheape...
vibrant famous landscape painting
  05/09/21
Batteries are already beating the estimates on the cost curv...
Diverse Crystalline Organic Girlfriend Codepig
  05/09/21
...
.,,,,.,......,.,.
  10/13/21
I think 30% in 2030 is way too low of an estimate. I wouldn'...
.,.,,...,...,..,....,...,...,...
  10/14/21
There's a very good chance that within 10 years we'll have e...
Stimulating Aqua Laser Beams Shrine
  05/09/21
3 years ago I was halfassedly shopping for a car and dismiss...
Arousing Whorehouse
  05/09/21
This isn't because of your new gig?
hideous chapel corn cake
  05/09/21
Ok maybe a little
Arousing Whorehouse
  05/09/21
Probably quicker in a bunch foreign countries that are not n...
chrome hairraiser locus
  05/09/21
So don’t buy a new a Honda Civic?
Floppy Jap Crotch
  05/09/21
Never. People forget that this “fad” already...
.,.,...,..,..,.,:,,:,,..,:::,.,.,:,.,.:..:.,:.::,,
  10/13/21


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: May 8th, 2021 8:55 PM
Author: Floppy Jap Crotch

Want to see if I should hold off on buying a new honda civic

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42426672)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 8th, 2021 11:55 PM
Author: Floppy Jap Crotch



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427780)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 8th, 2021 11:57 PM
Author: irate chad

3-5 years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427799)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 8th, 2021 11:59 PM
Author: Aggressive impertinent people who are hurt theatre

If you're offering even odds on 5 years, I'm betting everything I have and can get a hold of on the other side.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427811)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:07 AM
Author: irate chad

ok

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427890)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:43 AM
Author: Motley seedy stage pozpig

The average age of a car is like 10 years so it will take at least that long.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42428110)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:48 AM
Author: irate chad

thats true. i guess i was thinking market = new cars -- starting in 2021/2022 every major car company with have at least a few fully electric vehicles in their lineup. soon we will have fully electric silverados/F350s for example. they will likley have better performance and cost less than ICE alternatives. wouldnt be surprised if biden admin tries to incentive more charging infrastructure for EVs

mercedes, porsche, audi, will all have a significant portion of their fleets become EVs in 2021/2022 https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g29994375/future-electric-cars-trucks/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42428130)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:06 PM
Author: Aggressive impertinent people who are hurt theatre

I'd take the same bet even under your interpretation.

Being generous to your view, you've got a hard short-term cap of like 70% EV adoption just based on the people who rent. That means you need about 70% of all remaining sales to be EV. Not gonna happen. Not even close. Range anxiety is still a problem. Charging infrastructure is still shit. And EVs are more expensive for consumers and less profitable for manufacturers. Five years is just way too ambitious.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42429942)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:23 PM
Author: irate chad

brah all apartments have chargers in them, and people living in apartments dont live in ARE, not the same range issues

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430003)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:43 PM
Author: Swashbuckling cobalt point

ive never seen an apartment with chargers



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430054)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:48 PM
Author: irate chad

there is a federal tax incentive. every new one has them

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430063)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 2:14 PM
Author: Aggressive impertinent people who are hurt theatre

If you're counting on apartment development, you better get them moving. It takes a few years to build an apartment complex. And you're going to need a LOT more new apartments with far more chargers than is typical in new apartments now.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430168)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:43 PM
Author: Aggressive impertinent people who are hurt theatre

It's not even remotely close to true that all apartments have chargers, much less the number needed to support 50% EV adoption. Rather, some new complexes have a couple just so they can say they're one of the cool kids.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430055)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 2:16 PM
Author: Snowy exhilarant trailer park roommate

you realize that not everyone in america lives in a city or anywhere near ev infrastructure, and even then not everyone wants electric?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430180)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 9:46 PM
Author: big box office

stfu you bald faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42432033)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:08 AM
Author: Lilac Sanctuary Mother



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427900)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:12 AM
Author: Snowy exhilarant trailer park roommate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427927)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:24 AM
Author: Maize naked giraffe



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427994)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:11 AM
Author: well-lubricated goal in life regret

I would say 0% chance in the next 10 years. My brother bought two Teslas (S and 3) and for years sang their praises about how great they were. Then he bought a gasoline powered BMW and said it was much better. Electric cars require a change in your lifestyle and driving habits to accommodate their severe limitations, and they cost a lot more than gasoline powered cars.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427920)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:16 AM
Author: irate chad

i dont get this. unless youre driving around 24/7 or something you only have to charge the tesla over night like once a week

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427955)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:23 AM
Author: Motley seedy stage pozpig

Proles drive like 500 miles/week minimum and are very spontaneous

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42427990)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:25 AM
Author: Maize naked giraffe

yeah also if the car doesnt burn things its gay

double gay if it has cameras all over it

triple gay if it parallel parks/avoids smashing into other cars for you

vehicle ownership is pretty much the last point of pride/not being gay that most americans have, but the elites are gaying up all of our cars and are trying to make the driving experience entirely gynocentric and, as it seems to increasingly be the case, sinocentric

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42428005)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:41 AM
Author: Motley seedy stage pozpig

180. But they’ve made most cars so gay that a Tesla is actually less gay

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42428100)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 12:45 PM
Author: irate chad

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-debuts-all-electric-suv-concept/

"Electrified product portfolio to expand to around 70 models globally by 2025; including 15 new battery electric vehicles, of which, seven will be Toyota bZ models"

any doubts that toyota will pwn the fuck out of tesla?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42429851)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:34 PM
Author: Diverse Crystalline Organic Girlfriend Codepig

There's a small chance they could be the majority of automobiles sold in 2030. I would bet they are at ~30% by then. Average age of a car is about 11 years, so tack on 15-20 years to that to figure out when most cars on the road will be electric.

An underrated factor is that American incomes aren't following automobile price increases (which increase roughly at the rate of inflation). It's possible that this is a major drag on EV adoption, since they cost a lot more money.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430034)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:51 PM
Author: vibrant famous landscape painting

once batteries get cheaper, elec cars should be a LOT cheaper....the drive train is so much simpler

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430073)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 3:32 PM
Author: Diverse Crystalline Organic Girlfriend Codepig

Batteries are already beating the estimates on the cost curve. The problem is that they are still expensive, and cost reductions encourage automakers to just put more batteries in the cars lol.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430435)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 13th, 2021 11:47 PM
Author: .,,,,.,......,.,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#43268794)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 14th, 2021 12:35 AM
Author: .,.,,...,...,..,....,...,...,...


I think 30% in 2030 is way too low of an estimate. I wouldn't be surprised if it is no longer possible to buy an ICE car by 2030. The cost of an electric car compared to an ICE car is dropping rapidly, and electric cars are already superior to ICE cars on most metrics other than price and driving range. Soon electric cars will be comparable or better to ICE cars by these metrics as well, at which point the ICE will be completely obsolete. It do agree that it will be much longer before there are no more ICE cars on the road, though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#43268991)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:41 PM
Author: Stimulating Aqua Laser Beams Shrine

There's a very good chance that within 10 years we'll have ev batteries with at least twice the capacity and many times the charging speeding. Cheaper, too, of course as competition and economies of scale become big factors. At some point, the price will get low enough that with tax credits it'll be a no-brainer

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430048)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 1:52 PM
Author: Arousing Whorehouse

3 years ago I was halfassedly shopping for a car and dismissed electric as not quite there yet. Now I wouldn't buy anything that isn't electric. Things move fast.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430079)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 2:15 PM
Author: hideous chapel corn cake

This isn't because of your new gig?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430174)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 2:17 PM
Author: Arousing Whorehouse

Ok maybe a little

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430185)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 2:24 PM
Author: chrome hairraiser locus

Probably quicker in a bunch foreign countries that are not named the United States. For countries with smog problems it’s more urgent. Plus our economy remains dependent on oil in many more ways that a bunch of other places.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42430214)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2021 9:20 PM
Author: Floppy Jap Crotch

So don’t buy a new a Honda Civic?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#42431899)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 13th, 2021 11:50 PM
Author: .,.,...,..,..,.,:,,:,,..,:::,.,.,:,.,.:..:.,:.::,,


Never.

People forget that this “fad” already happened once in the late 1980s.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4829865&forum_id=2#43268817)