but for reals, i think i'd rather lose inches off my penis. height is nearly immutable and highly visible.

u?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813112)

What % odds do you give to you being wrong about the nature of tether?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813281)

my cost basis is so low that i feel like im playing with house money (even though this is totally irrational). i've cashed out millions from crypto so no matter what happens to the price im still ahead. i exploit this house money bias because i otherwise i probably would not be able to put on this much risk and ride stuff to 100x gains. my brain tells me crypto is still the highest expected return asset class long-term, but my heart is inclined to grab the money and run.

by nature i am not particularly materialistic or status-driven or envious. im lazy as fuck, too. my grades in HS and college were mediocre and i did no extracurriculars. the only thing i've ever had going for me status-wise is i destroy standardized tests. i've always been content to be the underachieving slacker, so losing a bunch of fake internet money doesn't bother me as much as it would other people who obsess over "making it" or "winning."

What % odds do you give to you being wrong about the nature of tether?

my view of tether is that it's mostly if not fully backed, but the people and companies involved have definitely operated in a gray area to evade regulators. the commercial paper is likely risky, perhaps even junk bond quality. tether is essentially a very large, unregulated prime money market fund.

i think my odds of being largely wrong about this are maybe 15%. i think the odds of tether being a total fraud backed by close to nothing is under 5%. not impossible, but unlikely.

here's the thing about tether: many of the biggest tether creations are done by crypto funds like alameda. these large crypto traders have publicly stated they've created and redeemed hundreds of millions and at times billions of dollars of tether. you have people at kraken, circle, coinbase, etc. all attesting to creating and redeeming massive amounts of tether.

if tether is so obviously fraudulent, you can easily short it on ftx and even kraken. yet the peg has never stayed broken for long and pretty much all the biggest crypto funds are willing to trade it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813436)

Your poasting always resonated with me, I think partially because youre using the same mental tricks and "bankroll management" techniques and also because of your lack of materialism and status seeking need that many people have. I view crypto, poker and other ventures as a game, whether money is just a way to keep score of how you're doing, but ultimately it is meaningless and have no emotional attachment to it.

Crypto is not for everybody, and if you cant manage your own emotions during the insane rollercoaster ride, it's better to not get into it. Ideally you should react the exact same way whether you are up a ton or down a ton. Only thing that matters is whether your thesis is right.

That said, on the issue of tether fraud, I think the probability of that is much higher than you allow for it and I think we will see some insane things with crypto soon (possibly total ban of all crypto by world governments and forced transition to state run crypto, or massive tether fraud uncovered + BTC going to zero, or some other scenario entirely).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813796)

as a long-term bet, crypto is still one of the highest expected values around. the insane volatility is what enables the mind-melting returns, so accept some of the bad with the good.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813197)

It might take 2-3 years but the bubble will inflate again, right? Assuming no black swan like us gov banning it?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813223)

obviously, most cryptos are going to hit 0 at some point, so you can't hold shitcoins and pray that they recover. a lot of shitcoins from the last bubble still around have greatly lagged BTC and ETH.

finally, you have to accept some existential risk. it's totally conceivable all crypto goes to zero. i think it's unlikely at this point given the maturity of the space, but the drawdowns are so severe that emotionally it's almost the same as losing all your money.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813249)

no

and are you WGWAG'ing these days?

yes, but in a weird situation

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813217)

If you haven't, it's a very interesting case study on getting people to buy into a "fake" currency.

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/10/04/130329523/how-fake-money-saved-brazil is a good primer on it.

After you look into it (although I'm sure you're probably familiar w it), would be interested to hear your thoughts on possibility that BTC was created by world's deepstate and is running the same trick to get people to accept the idea of a digital world currency (that the deepstate secretly controls).

Ty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813555)

i really doubt the deep state created BTC. what would be the point? the current financial system gives the government virtually unlimited power to mint, destroy, monitor and control people's finances. BTC is one of the few things that allows people to take back some semblance of control.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813607)

The semblance of control is an illusion to draw libertarian types in. We are in the "buy in" period right now. It might go another 5-10 years, who knows.

China already pretty much largely controls BTC via their mining from what I understand. In my opinion, even if deepstate didnt invent/create BTC originally, they already control it via CCP + a couple other key miners.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813655)

BTC and ETH have combined market caps of $750B. SOL has a fully diluted market cap of $12B--that's less than 2%. even if you look at SOL v ETH, SOL has only 5.6% of ETH's market cap. given how quickly SOL is improving and gaining developer share, liquidity, attention, that seems very cheap compared to the established majors.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813680)

I don't disagree with any of your statements. The one thing that makes me slightly cautious is that the network hasn't been tested for nearly as long as the BTC and ETH networks, so you're more likely to have an unknown unknown (e.g., some technical flaw) that causes an issue. I admit that is not very likely, and the fact that a16z invested is encouraging, and of course SBF is amazing.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813707)

I cashed out about 600k earlier this year that I put into more real estate (unfortunately again not at the peak, was a few weeks prior) and still have a small stack left.

All with a very modest initial investment. Also bought SOL this year (again, based mostly on your advice), we'll see what happens with that.

You get a lot of shit on here, but I always took your poasting as earnest, and you always advised people not to risk more than they can afford to lose. I think it's funny when you're accused of running a scam, when this place is so tiny that it's ridiculous to think it really moves the needle in any markets. There'll always be losers and haters, hope you dont take it to heart.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42813762)

tobacco stocks are starting to look interesting.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42814362)

Exactly how Guy does at 1:28 but listen to the whole intro first to get the full effect.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817385)

at this stage of SOL's development, above 20% of ETH's market cap would strike me as rich.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817745)

Thoughts on Algorand, MATIC, ELRD and any other competitors to SOL? Are they all shit or do you see any of them potentially threatening SOL?

Also, what are your thoughts on LINK? Many xoers have been shilling it. Is it legit or is TCR to just buy more SOL?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42814335)

LINK's price is perpetually inflated by 4chan tards. the actually functionality itself does not deserve the valuation it commands. but, again, network effects (i.e. belief, liquidity, willingness to own/trade) are everything, so i don't doubt LINK can go up a lot and stay there for a while, similar to AMC or GME. and if enough people believe, it becomes reality.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817255)

uhhh... based on what?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817499)

look at dfinity and polkadot. the projects and backing are sad, and there's been noticeable decceleration in their backing.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817734)

pyth,oxygen, serum - are these supposed to mean something to me?

investing in an exchange (FTX) is FAR AWAY from supporting solana jesus christ, why do i need to explain this to you?

as for the other projects, i'm sure they all have similar "backers" so you're just pulling shit out of your ass.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817756)

instead of coming up with irrelevant reasons why im wrong, think about why your model of the world has generally been inferior to mine.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817783)

instead you made some hyperbolic, and even false claims, and i called it out. simple as that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817845)

DFINITY raised a total of $121 million from contributors such as Andreessen Horowitz, Polychain Capital, SV Angel, Aspect Ventures, Electric Capital, ZeroEx, Scalar Capital, and Multicoin Capital, and several notable early Ethereum supporters.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817763)

nothing you wrote addressed the substance of my claim, which is--i repeat--based on the rate of change. listing the same VC funds also backing other projects (who btw invested far less) is irrelevant.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817804)

Earlier this year, Swiss issuer 21Shares AG launched its own DOT product, an ETP listed on the Swiss SIX exchange. The crypto press quickly took note that it had attracted investment from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and UBS, among others. More recently, Swiss digital asset firm Valour issued its own set of ETPs offering exposure to Polkadot and Cardano.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817782)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817634)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817826)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42817839)

Hype

Team (who is behind it)

Concept (does it satisfy a need in the market)

Second, what other qualities are important that I may have left off?

tyia

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42818168)

long run:

1) team

.

.

.

.

2) hype

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

3) concept

short run:

1) hype/team

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

3) concept

of the qualities you left off, the most important is tokenomics (how are the tokens distributed, who owns them, and how they get released into the market). buying a low float token with a huge % owned by insiders who got in at close to zero is an almost guaranteed recipe for getting dumped upon. it's such a simple idea but most retards don't pay attention to it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4881993&forum_id=2#42818567)