2014 - Abbott Davis R +19.5, Cornyn Alameel R +27

2016 - Trump Clinton R +9

2018 - Abbott Valdez R +13, Cruz Beto R +2

2020 - Trump Biden R +5, Cornyn Hegar R +6.5

Every year Texas has 250k people die, ~ 90% of whom are white conservatives, and every year approximately 1.25M people in Texas turn 18, 2/3rds of whom aren’t white and overall the new voters lean Dem by 20-30 points, but most of them don’t vote (so far). There are thousands of stories about the net migration of 50k people or so into Texas every year, but that has way less of an impact on partisan lean than deaths and adds to voting age population. If Dems ever get off their asses and register voters it will change more quickly, bc the Texas Dem party has been a pathetic joke since we poasters were preteens. But the decade long trend is roughly 2% gain per federal cycle because of demographic trends that are fully baked in and caused by lax immigration enforcement two decades ago and earlier.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43521041)

2020 had COVID mail-in bullshit and Trump as a uniquely divisive figure. And the GOP did shockingly well with Hispanics. Hispanics in Texas tend to be more deeply rooted and are repulsed by Dem crime bullshit and nig pandering. There are a ton of conservative second and third generation hispanic men in Texas. Combine that with a return to outperformance with suburban whites and Pinochet level dominance with rural whites and they’re safe in Texas for a while.

Libs were protected from their growing insanity because of Trump. He shielded them from crushing electoral defeats because a ton of people just hate him. 2022 we’ll see how things go without that shield. If it’s a dominant win like 2010 or 2014 in spite of a decade of demographic change then I think that argument is overstated.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43522743)

they have fully embraced the future reality of a Gay Brown Globohomo America. they are doing everything they can to expedite it (at the behest of their donors/(((masters)))).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43520924)

Based on this analysis at 538, Florida has moved very slightly to the right between 2000 and 2016, although the difference is pretty small. The trend accelerated slightly in 2020. So it's not a huge difference, but Florida is definitely becoming slightly more Republican relative to the rest of the country.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43523142)

Author: "''"'''"""'''

that’s the perception, not the reality. Also DeSantis nearly lost to a gay crackhead. That’s not what you typically see in a red state.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=#)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43523236)

Author: "''"'''"""'''

Florida getting redder is a weird myth with no support. Trump won it by 2-3% because its a purple state and he’s basically from there.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=#)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43523238)

Texas is getting people from California that are moving to Austin (which, they view as "not really TX") and have no interest in living in an R place and are taking their politics with them.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43524353)

retards think politics is static. the parties will shift positions to remain competitive.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43521116)

Best thing that could happen. GOP has been tranquillizing and betraying us for decades

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43521206)

Conservative whites are dying, but numerically Hispanics are taking their place. Hispanics are largely MUCH more conservative than whites. Whites can be persuaded that liberalism is a good thing; that they should feel guilty about their past; that they should support gay shit.

Rank and file Hispanics are resolutely proud of their heritage, their family. They own property, however modest, and share with their entire family. They are not atomized like whites. Many of them have left the Catholic Church, but they attend evangelical churches instead.

They hate niggers, and will never fall for BLM. Not being white, they can’t be guilted into supporting it. They know not to relax, because black people have always been a threat to their life and property, slinking over to the barrio from the ghetto to rob and sell drugs.

They have little sympathy for border jumpers. Most of them immigrated legally, or have always been Americans. Border jumpers ruin their border communities and threaten their kids’ safety. Counties in the Rio Grande Valley voted overwhelmingly for Trump last year, in some counties a 20- to 30-point swing from 2016.

Yes, we will get a lot of big-money carpetbaggers swarming into the state. But they refuse to live anywhere except a few key ZIP codes. They won’t change the outlook of vast swaths of the state. They won’t convert people to their way of thinking, it is beyond reason now, bordering on religiosity. Crucially, they have few children.

TLDR Whites are on their way out but Hispanics are not blue. I mean, they were blue, but then they starting pushing all this fag bullshit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43521422)

Demographic changes and a suburban backlash did not stop President Trump from taking the Lone Star State, though he did so with a smaller margin than in 2016. Even as urban and suburban areas moved in large numbers toward Democrats, many Hispanic voters in the south abruptly exited the Democratic coalition.

There was an indication of a Hispanic movement leaning Republican when former Representative Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat, lost ground in some Hispanic counties in his 2018 race against Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican. In Hidalgo County, for instance, Mrs. Clinton won by 41 percentage points in 2016, Mr. O’Rourke won by 38 in 2018, and Mr. Biden by just 17 points.

The state’s I-35 corridor, from the northern suburbs of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex to San Antonio, was awash in newfound Democrats, mostly white and educated. The Houston suburbs also moved in Mr. Biden’s direction.

Texas has become politically competitive partly because of its growing diversity and because its white suburbs have grown more moderate. Counties outside the inner suburbs — largely white and wealthier areas often referred to as exurbs — have also seen some movement to the left.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43522802)

Trump was 1% away from GWB

---

https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/582970-hispanic-support-for-republicans-hardline-immigration-policies-may-keep

Many Democrats were convinced that Donald Trump’s conservative, and at times offensive, policies on immigration and border security would alienate Hispanics to such an extent that they would flock in droves to the Democratic Party in 2020. Instead, according to exit polls, Trump won 32 percent of the Latino vote nationally (up from 28 percent in 2016) and 41 percent of the Latino vote in Texas (up from 34 percent in 2016). In the Rio Grande Valley’s two most populous countries (Hidalgo and Cameron; directly across the border from Mexico), where Hispanics account for more than 90 percent of the population, Trump won 41 percent and 43 percent of the vote in 2020 (up from 28 percent and 32 percent, respectively, in 2016).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43522813)

We will see where 2022 / 2024 shake out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43522822)

I-35 corridor folks are social libs but fiscally conservative. They like police, roads, and firefighters, think Dallas, Austin, San Antone are way too woke. But they are also moderates. Lots of working class Hispanics and whites. They all like weed and therefore think the state legislators from rural TX are insane. They're somewhat sympathetic to BLM. But they would rather vote R if it meant lower property taxes. Lot of split 50/50 counties in national elections that could swing either way.

Houston suburb libs are like literally as bad as NYC joos. These are yuge white guilt liberal types. A lot more left wing than I35ers.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43522837)

49 "seconded"s in unison

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43522754)

How is that going in Florida? The party of androgynous freaks that increasingly say “birthing people” and “latinx” seems unlikely to do all that well with Hispanics in Texas. Call it a hunch.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43522980)

We've already witnessed the full conversion of the white working classes to the Republicans, and that in turn is changing the Republican party. It's no longer the party of big business and banking it was 20 years ago. It is now increasingly hostile to big corporations and especially big tech, and for good reasons. It's now the party increasingly focused on the liberties and rights of ordinary people.

The big question mark is in what direction the immigrants and non-whites go. There are many indicators that Hispanics are not turning to identity politics to the degree the Democrats hope for, if anything, many reject identity politics. Hispanics are also an extremely diverse bloc, not monolithic like black Americans. The Democratic viewpoint towards race is driven solely by its experience with black voters that they are constantly making mistakes in trying to extent their moral righteousness surrounding identity politics to the Hispanic voting blocs, but Hispanics have a very different American experience than blacks do. Hispanics occupy the same niche the Italians and Irish did in previous generations, are much more culturally conservative, religious, family-oriented, and gung ho to work, all common contributes of traditional American working and middle classes, and all suggesting a natural sympathy for many traditional Republican platforms. They don't bring a natural antipathy towards American history that blacks and elite Democrats do, if anything, they are eager to be part of the great American experience.

It's not unreasonable to see Hispanics effectively becoming "normalized" rather than remaining a distinct and separate bloc, something that is actually happening more quickly than we might have thought. The South Texas results in recent elections show substantial anger towards the Democrats over their failure to control the border, and this is from Hispanic voters. They made clear their vote is not guaranteed the way black votes are.

As things are in extreme flux, it will be very interesting to see how politics and voting dynamics and party allegiances evolve in the next twenty years. I do think the Republicans have many reasons to be confident but they will need to work extremely hard at it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43524555)

*look at Italy, look at Ireland and the cultures those people created*

*now look at Honduras*

this is vacuous. when the country is filled with 80IQ hispanics, it will be a favela (with hypershitlib enclaves like SF existing like islands among the ocean of shit).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43524579)

a country/state that is 80% latin americans will become, quite literally, a latin american state.

hispanic super-majorities are not going to preside over an anglo-american style Burkean conservative/libertarian culture. this is sheer delusion.

you only need to look at latin america to know what your future will be.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43523154)

Assuming the trends that make Texas bluer continue apace, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire will all turn red first.

It's so dumb because we've seen this play out several times in our lifetimes. California used to be a red state! Were the GOP fucked when it became deep blue?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43523250)

They haven't freed their minds to think about problems from every angle. Lib religion prevents critical thought and creativity. So you just end up with these maxims.

Libs were saying during Obama term that Northern Virginia going blue was the nail in the coffin for the GOP and demographics would win permanently. Then obviously 2016, the great Unforeseen Result.

Trupmos definitely also in denial about the fact their living God could possibly turn off suburban voters with his bumbling repulsive persona.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43523304)

In the short term, these changes are more likely to help the Republicans. The aforementioned midwestern states are already more Republican than the country as a whole, which gives the Republicans a big advantage in the Electoral College. That can change quickly, though. If Texas were to become a blue state (a very big if), California, Texas, and New York alone would give the Democrats almost half the electoral votes they need for the White House. It would be very tough for the Republicans to overcome that kind of headwind.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43525120)

Platinum Plan approach would be to solidify their hold over rustbelt states with large cities, hold on to the precarious North Carolina, and fix the Georgia situation.

Nevada/Arizona/Texas need the latino machismo approach. California too potentially. California remains a state that underperforms for Republicans largely just due to it lacking a competent statewide GOP party infrastructure.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43529952)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43532339)

https://newrepublic.com/article/163564/nevada-blue-wave

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43533706)

https://www.nevadacurrent.com/2021/08/16/census-data-shows-communities-of-color-are-the-new-nevada/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43534257)

Pennsylvania will be very very light blue.

Florida will be very very light red.

Ohio will be safe red.

The only state on that list that will be seriously contested long term is Pennsylvania.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43537319)

This is just math. There's more ground for the GOP to gain in swing states with working class voters than there is for Dems to gain with college educated voters, because swings states are overwhelmingly working class. This is why there's an R advantage in the electoral college to begin with.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4974129&forum_id=2#43546098)