there's no fucking way "dads" just moved 30 points to libs
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: August 15th, 2022 9:00 PM Author: hilarious cruise ship
over "Roe" or any other issue
one of the more ridiculous claims I've seen posted here
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45018982) |
Date: August 16th, 2022 6:34 AM Author: Cracking Jap
5% of white males (a huge multi-millions chunk of votes) switched from Trump to 'Biden' in 2020 -- after 2 years of BLM rioting/looting, Trannies, ant-white male cultural hysteria, and 'Covid.'
does anyone actually believe this happened.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45020249) |
Date: August 16th, 2022 8:05 AM Author: Kink-friendly provocative haunted graveyard twinkling uncleanness
To be fair,
But isn't everyone quickly getting redpilled on the Jews, abortion, homosexuals and blacks? Isn't it a virtual certainty that there will soon be a mass violent uprising that I've admitted that I've had a sexual thrill of fantasizing about? Wasn't being bitterly sarcastic supposed to be something other than a coping mechanism for my dying creed? Guys? Guys???
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45020352) |
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Date: August 20th, 2022 12:29 PM Author: stimulating university
To be fair,
Probably nothing. For now.
Pumos think this is totally sustainable. That's where I, uh, disagree.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043249) |
Date: August 20th, 2022 1:07 PM Author: heady infuriating business firm
JFC. This bort is basically proof of the stereotype that people go to law school because they are too dumb to do math. (Also, clearly many of you are too dumb to think critically as well.)
Anyway, PhD statistician here. Let me give you a lesson on public opinion polling in case anyone cares to learn. Usually the top line numbers on a public opinion poll are pretty accurate, assuming your sample is representative of the population, which is a big "if." (Contrary to what the conspiracy theorists say, there is no evidence that pollsters deliberately tried to underestimate Trump's support in the last two elections. But there is some evidence that Trump supporters are less willing to participate in opinion surveys, which could result in a biased sample. But that's beside the point here.) But even the top line numbers have a margin of error, which frequently does not get reported by the media (and gets misinterpreted if they do report it).
In practice, though, your sample will almost never be a good representation of the population. What if you are surveying a state that is 25% black, but only 10% of the respondents in your survey are black? Typically what's done is that you increase the weight of black voters in your sample and down weight other groups. They do with the same with age and gender and (sometimes) things like income, education, and partisan affiliation.
But the point is that when you look at the cross tabs (the poll results for a specific demographic group), it is often based on a very small sample that was up weighted. So the margin of error for specific groups is often so wide as to be essentially meaningless. This is why you would sometimes hear weird results in opinion polls like 40% of black men supported Trump (which got way more media attention than justified because the media don't understand this concept).
And I'm virtually certain that's what is going on in this study. Is it possible that dads have moved toward the Dems in the past two years? Sure. Did they move by 30 points? I very highly doubt it. This doesn't show that opinion polling is bunk. It just shows that polls are highly inaccurate for very narrowly defined demographic subgroups. And unfortunately many people in the media don't know that.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043420) |
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Date: August 20th, 2022 1:22 PM Author: stimulating university
To be fair,
"Look, stupid goys with graduate degrees that are less smart than my graduate degree -- here's 2,000 words explaining why polling is ACKSHUALLY great and wonderful and basically a science, even though it is often extremely inaccurate and misleading (but that's just because, like, you're retarded or something). Trust me, I'm an Expert(TM)!"
Thanks, Avi.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043471) |
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Date: August 20th, 2022 1:49 PM Author: stimulating university
To be fair,
"Anyway, PhD statistician here. Let me give you a lesson on public opinion polling in case anyone cares to learn. Usually the top line numbers on a public opinion poll are pretty accurate..."
Haha, yeah pumo, haha!
*leans into mic*
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043573) |
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Date: August 20th, 2022 3:11 PM Author: stimulating university
To be fair,
"You're a complete embarrassment. A retard! A total fucking retard, no wonder you're so stupid and wrong about everything! Keep on blaming 'the Jews,' no one listens to you or cares what you think, loser! You fucking total loser! You're mad about what we're do--er, politics on the internet! Fucking pathetic! LOSER!" screamed the (tall, jacked, hot, rich, brilliant, Irish Catholic Midwestern Conservative Goy) XO Pumo.
I had no choice but to nod in solemn agreement. "Yeah, that all sounds right... plus, I mean... he *is* a Pumo..." I thought sadly. Rough day for me, as usual. I should probably just kill myself already.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043877) |
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