one of the more ridiculous claims I've seen posted here

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45018982)

#GirlDad

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45018983)

Does that clear that up?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45018988)

does anyone actually believe this happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45020249)

But isn't everyone quickly getting redpilled on the Jews, abortion, homosexuals and blacks? Isn't it a virtual certainty that there will soon be a mass violent uprising that I've admitted that I've had a sexual thrill of fantasizing about? Wasn't being bitterly sarcastic supposed to be something other than a coping mechanism for my dying creed? Guys? Guys???

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45020352)

I think "outspoken and confrontational" might be the load-bearing part of this construction.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45020561)

Even straights with no wife or kids are a good example - James Woods, a Hollywood actor who DGAF about speaking his mind

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45020573)

Probably nothing. For now.

Pumos think this is totally sustainable. That's where I, uh, disagree.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043249)

Anyway, PhD statistician here. Let me give you a lesson on public opinion polling in case anyone cares to learn. Usually the top line numbers on a public opinion poll are pretty accurate, assuming your sample is representative of the population, which is a big "if." (Contrary to what the conspiracy theorists say, there is no evidence that pollsters deliberately tried to underestimate Trump's support in the last two elections. But there is some evidence that Trump supporters are less willing to participate in opinion surveys, which could result in a biased sample. But that's beside the point here.) But even the top line numbers have a margin of error, which frequently does not get reported by the media (and gets misinterpreted if they do report it).

In practice, though, your sample will almost never be a good representation of the population. What if you are surveying a state that is 25% black, but only 10% of the respondents in your survey are black? Typically what's done is that you increase the weight of black voters in your sample and down weight other groups. They do with the same with age and gender and (sometimes) things like income, education, and partisan affiliation.

But the point is that when you look at the cross tabs (the poll results for a specific demographic group), it is often based on a very small sample that was up weighted. So the margin of error for specific groups is often so wide as to be essentially meaningless. This is why you would sometimes hear weird results in opinion polls like 40% of black men supported Trump (which got way more media attention than justified because the media don't understand this concept).

And I'm virtually certain that's what is going on in this study. Is it possible that dads have moved toward the Dems in the past two years? Sure. Did they move by 30 points? I very highly doubt it. This doesn't show that opinion polling is bunk. It just shows that polls are highly inaccurate for very narrowly defined demographic subgroups. And unfortunately many people in the media don't know that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043420)

"Look, stupid goys with graduate degrees that are less smart than my graduate degree -- here's 2,000 words explaining why polling is ACKSHUALLY great and wonderful and basically a science, even though it is often extremely inaccurate and misleading (but that's just because, like, you're retarded or something). Trust me, I'm an Expert(TM)!"

Thanks, Avi.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043471)

"Anyway, PhD statistician here. Let me give you a lesson on public opinion polling in case anyone cares to learn. Usually the top line numbers on a public opinion poll are pretty accurate..."

Haha, yeah pumo, haha!

*leans into mic*

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043573)

"You're a complete embarrassment. A retard! A total fucking retard, no wonder you're so stupid and wrong about everything! Keep on blaming 'the Jews,' no one listens to you or cares what you think, loser! You fucking total loser! You're mad about what we're do--er, politics on the internet! Fucking pathetic! LOSER!" screamed the (tall, jacked, hot, rich, brilliant, Irish Catholic Midwestern Conservative Goy) XO Pumo.

I had no choice but to nod in solemn agreement. "Yeah, that all sounds right... plus, I mean... he *is* a Pumo..." I thought sadly. Rough day for me, as usual. I should probably just kill myself already.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043877)

this is propaganda w a psychological purpose

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043734)

And no, polls have not leaned Democratic over the past 20 years. If you look at only presidential polls, they overestimated Democratic votes in 2020 and 2016 but overestimated Republican votes in 2012. And this is noormal and expected. I guess lawyers that don't understand math have trouble grasping the idea that all polls have a certain amount of error and that is best explained by sampling variance or biased samples, not favoring one party over the other.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043952)

LMAO thanks again Avi

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5173981&forum_id=2#45043956)