Which ETF to put $100k in as a younger millenial?
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Date: November 29th, 2024 1:25 PM Author: trigger cut
that is dumb advice, VOO over time is one of the best investments one can make.
i'd split it like this:
20% VOO
20% SCHD
20% SCHG
20% SMH
20% VGT
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5641433&forum_id=2#48393120)
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Date: November 29th, 2024 1:24 PM Author: theranchman
However, due to daily compounding and market volatility, holding UPRO over extended periods can lead to performance deviations from the expected multiple. This phenomenon, known as volatility drag or volatility decay, occurs because daily resets cause the fund to "buy high" and "sell low" during volatile markets, eroding returns over time.
WIKIPEDIA
For example, if the S&P 500 experiences significant fluctuations, UPRO's performance may not align precisely with three times the index's cumulative return over the same period. Therefore, UPRO is generally more suitable for short-term trading strategies rather than long-term holdings
you think leverage is free genius?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5641433&forum_id=2#48393118) |
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Date: November 29th, 2024 2:29 PM Author: Gregor
Thanks for the copy/paste from the prospectus. You haven't done any math or research.
In an absolute worst case scenario the yield is equal: Dump everything in at the peak of 2021/2022 and hold until today and the SPY is up 25.5% and the 3X ETF is up 23%
Dollar cost average or just avoid buying the peak and you will do 2x - 3x S&P.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5641433&forum_id=2#48393224) |
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Date: November 29th, 2024 2:34 PM Author: theranchman
yeah so you match SPX returns when the SPX is up 26% in 24 months. how is that a winner.
people are wayyyy underestimating how unusual this bull run is, it's implicit in the OP's question
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5641433&forum_id=2#48393245)
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Date: November 29th, 2024 2:17 PM
Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,...,:::..,.,:,.,.:.,:.,:.::,.
why brk-b over qqq?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5641433&forum_id=2#48393202)
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Date: November 29th, 2024 6:10 PM Author: Polisci SHITHEAD
BRK.B = stable, value-oriented investments, nice distribution of different industries (insurance, energy, railroads, tech) and exposure to blue chips (Coca Cola, Apple, Amex)
QQQ = highly volatile during downturns (see 2022 tech crash)
BRK.B = insane cash reserves, good position to pivot and acquire undervalued assets during market turmoil
QQQ = concentration risk, 50% of QQQ are in 5 companies, overly reliant on tech
BRK.B = active management, highest quality investment mgmt talent, no bloat, real philosophy, discipline - no pressure to track benchmarkets or quarterly performance
QQQ = passively managed, tracks Nasdaq.
BRK.B = no dividends, instead reinvesting earnings into existing investments or new investments, maximizes compounding over time.
QQQ = dividends but very low (~0.5 yield as of today)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5641433&forum_id=2#48393910)
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Date: November 29th, 2024 9:47 PM Author: Polisci SHITHEAD
you're entrusting your savings to a bunch of middle of the pack BC/Syracuse Finance grads (https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=/9905810.PDF) instead of Warren Buffett and his team?
with an above average net expense ratio of .40%
$100k and 7% average annual return over 30 years, that's $60k in fees compared to $0 at Berkshire
let's assume you reinvest 2% annual dividends, now you're looking at $100k+ in fees due to that expense ratio.
bad decision.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5641433&forum_id=2#48394294) |
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Date: November 30th, 2024 1:05 AM Author: Polisci SHITHEAD
The pedigree of Berkshire's track record is sufficient enough. They have literally the best track record of any investment firm in the history of the world, save for maybe RenTech, and the leanest team.
Warren Buffett - Columbia MBA
Greg Abel (his likely successor) - some podunk Canadian b-school school in Alberta, runs Berkshire's portfolio ex-insurance
Ajit Jain - HBS, probably smartest brain in insurance today
Todd Combs - Geico's CEO, Columbia MBA, JP Morgan board member,
Ted Weschler - Wharton, hedge fund manager with insane track record before shutting down/returning capital
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5641433&forum_id=2#48394726)
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Date: November 30th, 2024 1:13 AM Author: Polisci SHITHEAD
Berkshire portfolio managers comp is FAR more modest relative to every single other firm, based on AUM, especially mutual funds or ETFs. Todd Combs & Ted Weschler make mid 8 to high 9 figures but that's a drop in the bucket compared to what they actually manage. ETFs like VOO charge a management fee which directly reduces investor returns over time at a much greater rate relative to the size of the fund.
There is some merit to the company's structure's tax inefficiency. Yes they pay 21% corp tax but they rarely sell major holdings like Apple. Long term holding strategy really minimizes taxable events at the corp level basically deferring taxes for shareholders. Compare that to many ETFs, like VOO, who distribute dividends which are taxed annually. Berkshire retains and reinvests all earnings - that's tax-free compounding until you decide to sell your shares. Huge advantage for long term investors.
The tax inefficiency claim primarliy applies when comparing, say, a direct Apple holding vs. Berkshire. HOwever, Berkshire's diversification, active mgmt offset this through superior capital allocaiton.
As for their insurance float - it's value cannot be overstated.They have access to $100 billion+ in insurance float at an effective cost close to 0%. That's real capital to invest, yielding returns far greater than the cost of borrowing. It's cheap leverage. Their float also isn't subject to much regulatory constraint, so they have flexibility to be opportunistic.
Your assertion that they've been on par with the S&P for the past 20 year sis mileading. THeir performance is aligned with the S&P due to it's size but it's a stronger performer when adjusted for risk and volatility. During bear markets, Berkshire outperforms due to its defensive position and cahs reserves (see 2008 and 2020). Consistency and stability are very valuable for most investors. While they're not oging to beat the S&P in bull markets, it provides a much smoother ride during downturns.
No one expects perpetual outperformance, but Berkshire does not rely soely on market-beating investments. GEICO, BNSF Railway, BH Energy provide consistent cash flow in any equity market environment. Unlike ETFs, Berkshire can actively redeploy $$ into undervalued opportunities, something passive funds can never do.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5641433&forum_id=2#48394734) |
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