Date: November 6th, 2026 3:13 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe
The remaining ballots are heavy Peltola districts. It's a lot of mail from remote indigenous villages. In the jungle primary this year and in recent years, the dem has gained anywhere from 1-3 points at this point where they wait to get the last 10-20% of the vote. If she gets over 50%, the ranked-choice ballot counting doesn't get activated. She has a good shot at that.
Even assuming she doesn't get over 50, she's very likely to prevail. Current second/third choice counts (they count the additional choices as they come in), show a plurality don't even bother to put in a second choice. And surprisingly, among those putting in a second and third choice, she's done well enough that there's little chance Sullivan can close the gap, which will be 1-2 points after the remaining ballots come in. Sullivan is going to need the remote villages to come in weaker than usual. Very unlikely.