Date: July 27th, 2009 12:54 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
Presidents get a honeymoon that eventually fades away. Obama's irresponsible choices on the (inevitably ineffective) stimulus bill led to a declining approval, even as voters still liked him personally. "Shovel ready" is a lie and "green jobs" are a fraud. But now that 80% of white Americans disapproved of his response to the Gates incident, the honeymoon is over. Rasmussen has him at -10 and as the unemployment climbs, as it surely will, so will disapproval. (Obama will only sporadically address economic growth and employment.) Obama has committed himself to the obvious lie that letting the government take over healthcare will improve the debt situation -- a claim that no one, least of all Obama, Rahm, and Pelosi actually believes. As we roll into the 2010 Congressional races, independents and centrist Dems have already peeled away. Obama will face an electoral college problem in 2012 and only a bad GOP choice can win him a second term.
Date: July 27th, 2009 12:57 PM Author: Insecure boltzmann area
this is the funniest board. I read this and think Obama is universally hated...then I actually look at his approval ratings and newspapers and talk to people and it turns out people think he doing a pretty good job given the set of circumstances.
Date: July 27th, 2009 12:59 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
Voters like him personally, no doubt. But the approval numbers don't lie. He's at -10, even though he's still in the honeymoon phase. And the unemployment will rise over the next four months.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:11 PM Author: Insecure boltzmann area
he is fine. Economy will be in the shitter for another year or two and turn around just in time for him to get reelected. Just like Reagan, who presided over 2 years of recessions, before, poof, right before his reelection campaign everything turned around.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:15 PM Author: Insecure boltzmann area
Right. That is so obviously a given with economists split down the middle on the question.
But obviously, you will say, that any economist worth anything, thinks that Obama's policies are crap, so in reality there is consensus among real economists
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:17 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
The public doesn't give a fuck about an intra-economist debate. They give a fuck about unemployment and debt. And they can't believe that anyone is proposing to turn over health care to the government in this economy.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:20 PM Author: Insecure boltzmann area
No. They don't care about unemployment unless they are unemployed...and they don't care about debt except to the extent it affects them....and the vast majority of the voting public is still employed....and interest rates are low.
Everyone cares about how it effects them...and there is a huge group of people who will benefit greatly from universal health care...the people that don't benefit as much (or at least don't think they do) aren't a big enough group to do much on their own.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:25 PM Author: Insecure boltzmann area
Not the difference between 10% and 8%. So, what, that means that 1 or 2 more people they know is unemployed? The extra unemployed voter is definitely not going to swing voting.
Where is your evidence that people vote based on unemployment numbers?
the actual rate of unemployment is far greater than 10%, i believe they stop counting you if you've been unemployed for more than 6 months or some similar mechanism
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:00 PM Author: rose macaca ticket booth
In other words: About half of the whites who voted for him, and all of the Republicans, disapprove of the way he handled the Gates situation? Not too bad, considering.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:03 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
Getting 80% of Americans to agree on an issue is very hard -- and not something Obama wanted to see. The larger effect is to peel away indies and centrist Dems. They're the reason he won. If they don't believe in Obama, it will hurt in the 2010 election, it will prevent the health care bill, it force centrist Dems in red states into distancing themselves from Obama. All of which is starting to happen right now.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:14 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
That's not the point. The point is that the public doesn't look at him the same way anymore. They want answers and results. Unemployment will rise, and as Obama claims that "government control of health care reduces debt" his shit will stink.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:04 PM Author: Stimulating tattoo hell
Not surprised about the Gates slip-up. Obama has spent most of his life in universities where the whites are all self-hating, he had no idea how normal people would react. What he said is common coin at colleges and law schools.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:22 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
by "in touch" the other post and i meant a cultural affinity back and forth. clinton was white trash american from arkansas. poors of both races "got" him and vice versa. reagan was middle american all the way. obama's been taken by the hand in elite schools since high school, and as jesse jackson said, obama's "talking down" to people. that obama would be surprised by the reaction to his obviously stupid comment by crowley just proves the point.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:34 PM Author: cobalt state nowag
I think people overestimate Clinton's success with poor and rural whites.
Clinton did better with them than Obama, but he still lost them.
What Obama has done is replaced rural whites with more liberal, urban whites, of which there are more of given the revitalization of cities and younger people moving to cities. That won't change. He has lost some of his more upscale suburban support right now, but he can win that back if the general economy recovers.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:21 PM Author: Insecure boltzmann area
oh, well if those guys were in touch, then Obama surely is. The average democrat leaning american (ie: 60%of the country) still loves him. Surely, rednecks in the South hate him, but whats new.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:07 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
Credited. Obama was shocked at how blue collar American reacted. Funny, but it was the offer of a beer by the blue collar guy that might save the situation for Obama.
But the WH better get to Gates and tell him to clean up his high and mighty act before the big event. Gates, who's quite white by the way, is an elitist with no idea how he comes across.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:20 PM Author: cobalt state nowag
Obama will recover, but I admit it was a tough situation for him.
One thing Obama needs to better understand is how "class" works in the US. Obama and Gates don't think like this, but most Americans view them (fairly or unfairly) as of a higher class than folks like the cop, and when you berate a guy like that, most Americans typically react negatively.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:23 PM Author: cobalt state nowag
Air traffic controllers and transit workers aren't sympathetic figures. Cops typically are. You are going to argue race has a role, but air traffic controllers were probably mostly white.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:25 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
and they went out on strike, illegally, which fucked over traveling americans. it was the dumbest union move ever, with the possible exception of the MLB umpires who resigned because they were sure that baseball couldn't work without them.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:28 PM Author: cobalt state nowag
"I'm never going to knock others for trying to bargain for more money."
I don't argue against strikes, particularly industrial strikes. Service oriented strikes, though, have upset me from time to time. They happened at Yale and I didn't lik them then, and they happened at the MTA as well.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:24 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
America loved it when Reagan fucked the union. What are the odds of Obama taking on the teachers union and saying, "you've fucked up urban education enough"? that day will never come.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:26 PM Author: Zippy site bbw
you forgot one minor detail. it was against federal law for air traffic controllers to go on strike. And reagan called their bluff by firing their sorry ass. Americans' respect for Reagan grew immensely after that incident because it showed strong leadership and an actual backbone.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:34 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
Your point about how he was raised is a good one, but he did the opposite of race baiting: he ran as the post-racial guy, which is very appealing to whites. then when an elite black prof fucked up, obama called the blue collar white guy "stupid." obama betrayed his carefully cultivated image.
Date: July 27th, 2009 1:38 PM Author: cobalt state nowag
I think this is a misconception
Obama ran as a "post racial" guy? His biggest speech in the campaign was about race. Certain folks saw "post racial" in Obama, but most of those were Andrew Sullivan types who lean democrat anyway and are going to vote for him again in 2012. Plus, Obama spent millions of dollars driving up the black and Hispanic vote.
The critical point now is whether Obama can maintain any cred with the activist left. My guess is no. Centrist Dems will force Obama/Rahm/Pelosi to focus on job creation for the next 10 months.
Date: July 8th, 2011 5:18 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
i posted the OP two years ago, before the biggest GOP win in the House in 60 years and given today's unemployment numbers the OP was dead on the money.
it was the beginning of the huge slide for Barrack Hussein.
Date: July 8th, 2011 5:25 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
fixed it. BHO never committed to growing private sector jobs and unless the GOP fucks up massively, it will lead to a big POTUS win for GOP, maybe even getting the Senate too. the House will stay GOP, obviously.
Date: July 8th, 2011 5:30 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
the fact that it would climb and not drop as promised. the fact that Obama had passed his "peak-Obama" moment. the fact that he's lost the class of voters he'd need in 2012. the fact that the Dems had already lost the voters for the fall 2010 Congressional elections. people are still denying most of that stuff today, but it was obvious to me two years ago that he was done.
Date: December 9th, 2011 6:25 PM Author: pea-brained house
lol @ your racial resentments faggot. i'm sure you honestly thought that calling a WHITE MAN "stupid" was such an outrage and the turning point for obama, rather than continued economic troubles from the Bush depression.
Date: December 9th, 2011 6:47 PM Author: Bull headed razzle-dazzle scourge upon the earth field
how? there have been a lot of follow ups indicating that the obama strategy is to largely write off white working class people and go with the ultra elite and the minorities.