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KILLSHOT: CNN CALLS OHIO FOR OBAMA
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Date: October 27th, 2012 2:10 PM Author: pungent main people They pretty much had an entire segment devoted to how Romney won't win Ohio and how he won't win the election. Probably the only honest election coverage in MONTHS (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21899110) |
Date: October 27th, 2012 2:11 PM Author: salmon set i don't believe this. as of last night they were still drumming up the nightmare election scenario (where OH is so close that it takes several weeks to declare) (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21899119) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 2:13 PM Author: pungent main people They seriously devoted like 10 minutes explaining how Obama's margin is 'slim' but pretty definitive and that right now, they could call Iowa closer. But Iowa is also pretty much an O state now. (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21899142) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 2:16 PM Author: olive hospital lettuce In a week there will be close to 50 of the vote banked. I expect Bams' margin to go down but unless Roms can close this week, it's hard to see how even a huge day on election day can save him. (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21899159) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 2:20 PM Author: pungent main people That's the thing, if most polls are showing Obama up for 1-2%, it sounds like it's not a lot, but when it's consistent, it starts to seem a lot stronger and more accurate. That's what pisses me off about Reptiles and FOX News screaming about MOE. Yeah, it's within the MOE, but most polls are showing him up so suck it. Any commentator that has acknowledged that this election was done a while ago has earned my respect for honesty imo (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21899187) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 2:45 PM Author: olive hospital lettuce Yes, and more importantly if the people who have voted early have voted for Obama by a wide margin and the remaining electorate is tied, it's hard to see how that is good for Roms. (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21899334) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 5:36 PM Author: vigorous chestnut clown Duh, obviously if early voters trend Obama, then remaining electorate will lean strongly Romney. (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21900517) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 6:14 PM Author: olive hospital lettuce Right. But the last three polls have shown between 20-26% early vote at between 60-30 and 58-38 Obama with the remaining electorate tied.
This is Excellent News!!!! For Mittens!!! (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21900745) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 5:32 PM Author: Buck-toothed bistre orchestra pit Right. Just because an individual poll has the candidates within the MOE doesn't mean that the aggregate of a bunch of those polls means they are in the MOE. (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21900494) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 5:44 PM Author: Spectacular vengeful old irish cottage Also, MOE is strictly related to sample size. The larger the sample the less MOE. So when sites like RCP or 538 aggregate the polls, the MOE drops a lot.
And, the MOE just means 95% confidence it will be in that range. But the extremes of the MOE as the least likely outcome. The chance that nearly every poll is on the extreme of it's MOE is very small.
I'm too lazy to do the math, but the MOE for RCP is probably around 1%.
The bigger issue is sample bias. That really isn't accounted for in MOE. So Rom's only hope is that the polls are uniformly biased towards Obama for some reason. But in 2008 2010 Ohio polling certainly wasn't biased towards democrats.
RCP was fairly accurate except for a FOx/Rassmussen poll which shitted up the results, but in McCain's favor.
Rom's fucked. (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21900550) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 6:20 PM Author: olive hospital lettuce Some dood commentating on 538 had a good explanation of why the national polls might skew Roms while the state ones don't.
I wonder how much of the State-level / National Polls difference may be due to asymmetric distribution of errors among small sub-samples.
1. Suppose a national poll manages to contact 4 Hispanic voters in Texas (it "should" get 15 out of 1000 nationally - about 1.5 percent of US likely voters are Texas Hispanics! - but it's a difficult group to reach). And it "should" find that 3 support Obama and 1 supports Romney.
In reality, the group is so small it would not be much more likely to get this result than any other. And the mistake of getting 1 Obama is not cancelled out by a mistake of getting 5 Obama; 100% is a ceiling which makes the error asymmetric.
So, when a national poll "reads" Texas, it often gets a wrong Texas, with an unrealistically low Hispanic support for Obama, one which is even more pro-Romney than it is in reality. Similarly California's O support is estimated too low, etc.
2. State-level polls of the same states will not commit the same mistake simply because their sub-samples of the typical Demographics to that state would be much bigger.
3. This is a polling reality for Obama more than for Romney. Obama's support is more concentrated in groups that are (a) heavily skewed towards him, (b) are hard to poll. For this reason, they would tend to display asymmetric error that favors Romney in smaller samples.
4. In short, Obama's support is more granular and for this reason he does better in more granular polls. It could be as simple as that.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/oct-25-the-state-of-the-states/#more-36719 (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21900783) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 2:11 PM Author: Flesh appetizing striped hyena partner KILLSHOT (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21899122) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 2:14 PM Author: jade hyperactive indirect expression the hurricane will give them the week or so of stories they need, so they can actually cover the election for realz this time. (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21899150) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 2:16 PM Author: pungent main people >covers the election for real >"IT'S A TOSS UP" >meanwhile polls are showing Obama up where it counts >"HE COULD LOSE THE POPULAR VOTE" >technically true >"YOU NEED TO STAY WITH US, THE #1 PLACE FOR ELECTION NEWS" >(faggots) (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21899158) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 2:52 PM Author: concupiscible gold becky shrine Heres the segment
(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21899390) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 5:28 PM Author: olive hospital lettuce (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21900468) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 6:21 PM Author: hairraiser private investor step-uncle's house http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Anus_m.jpg (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21900791) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 9:35 PM Author: olive hospital lettuce (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21902050) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 10:44 PM Author: Canary chest-beating point rigpig is that kind of like when they called Florida for Gore (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21902670) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 10:48 PM Author: adventurous spot candlestick maker lol, so basically, Obama's lead among white men in Ohio will cost Roms the presidency.
oh the irony. (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21902697) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 10:50 PM Author: Elite Ladyboy (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21902716) |
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Date: October 27th, 2012 10:59 PM Author: rambunctious light station there is no lead among white men for Obama. just less of a deficit. we are currently told. (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21902776) |
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Date: November 6th, 2012 9:49 PM Author: Soul-stirring Yellow Tanning Salon Potus (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21983491) |
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Date: November 6th, 2012 9:50 PM Author: stirring ratface so close. (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21983501) |
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Date: November 6th, 2012 9:55 PM Author: Flesh appetizing striped hyena partner KILLSHOT (https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2093761&forum_id=2#21983628) |