dude just doesn't get it.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2#48315260)

btw, i think the guy is bullshit.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2#48315285)

every lawyer knows that no list of 13 general factors can be applied with the mathematical precision Lichtman claims for his model.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2#48315309)

The more factors in a test, the more wiggle room for biased interpretation

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2#48315313)

for example, how do you weigh the factors? just add them up and 7>6? what if 3 of the seven were close calls and all 6 were clearcut? would it still simply be 7>6?

it's bullshit. but if he'd just back off a bit and say that it's a very useful model for getting a rough feel for things, he'd be right.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2#48315324)

This guy is obviously a partisan hack trying to larp as objective above it all “numbers guy”

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2#48315312)

. The Keys Prediction

Amidst this turmoil, the Keys remained constant, accounting for the late change in the Democratic ticket. Early in 2024, the incumbent Democrats had definitively lost two keys. They forfeited Mandate Key 1 because of U.S. House losses in 2022 and Incumbent Charisma Key 12. Biden’s withdrawal and the nomination of a younger candidate (age 59 at the time rather than 81) brought fresh enthusiasm to the Democratic campaign. Still, Harris had failed in her bid for the Democrat’s 2020 presidential nomination, was largely invisible as a vice president, and has only recently become the 2024 nominee. Thus, she fails to secure Key 12.

Trump’s legal troubles did not impact this tally of two negative keys. As in 2016, he did not meet the criteria for turning Challenger Charisma Key 13 against the incumbent party. Biden’s withdrawal cost his party Incumbency Key 3. However, by uniting Democrats around Vice President Harris’s candidacy, he avoided the loss of Contest Key 2, leaving Democrats with a three-key rather than a four-key deficit. In addition, the Democrats lost Foreign/Military Failure Key 10 because of the Middle East humanitarian catastrophe with no good end in sight. The final tally is that the Democrats lost four and secured nine keys. The model would predict the defeat of Harris’s incumbent Democrats only if they held seven or fewer keys, that is, a six-key or larger deficit. With the Democrats holding a two-key cushion, the Keys model predicts Harris will become America’s first woman president and its first president of mixed African and Asian descent.

The following nine keys line up in favor of the incumbent Democrats.

Contest Key 2: The Democrats have united in near unanimity behind Harris.

Third-Party Key 4: In recognition of his fading support, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign. His endorsement of Donald Trump does not impact this key.

Short-Term Economy Key 5: It is too late for a recession to take hold of the economy before the election. The National Bureau of Economic Research, which provides the most reliable assessment of recessions, typically takes a few months to establish that the economy has fallen into a recession .

Long-Term Economy Key 6: Real per-capita growth during the Biden term far exceeds the average of the previous two presidential terms.

Policy Change Key 7: Biden has fundamentally changed the policies of the Trump administration in areas such as the environment and climate change, infrastructure, immigration, taxes, and women’s and civil rights.

Social Unrest Key 8: Despite sporadic demonstrations, social unrest has not risen to the level needed to forfeit this key: massive, unresolved unrest that threatens the stability of society as in the 1960s and early 1970s.

Scandal Key 9: Republicans in Congress have tried and failed to pin a scandal on President Biden. His son Hunter’s crimes do not count as scandal, which to do so must implicate the president himself and generate bipartisan recognition of wrongdoing.

Foreign/Military Success Key 11: President Biden and Biden alone forged the coalition of the West that kept Putin from conquering Ukraine and then undermining America’s national security by threatening its NATO allies. Biden’s initiatives will go down in history as an extraordinary presidential achievement.

Challenger Charisma Key 13: As explained, Trump does not fit the criteria of a once-in-a-generation, broadly appealing, transformational candidate like Franklin D. Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.

However, even if subsequent developments in Ukraine most improbably flipped both the Foreign/Military keys against the White House party, the deficit would be five keys, one short of the six negative keys needed to predict the incumbent party’s defeat. Thus, despite polls showing an uncertain election, the Keys’ prediction of Harris’s victory would not change.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2#48315327)

Despite much criticism of how I turned this key, Donald Trump does not qualify as a broadly inspirational candidate. Although a practiced showman, Trump appeals only to a narrow base. His presidential approval rating in the Gallup Poll averaged 41%, putting him at the bottom of all past presidents . In two elections, Trump lost the people’s vote by an average of 3% and a combined 10 million votes . According to 538’s polling average for mid-October 2024, only 43% of Americans had a favorable opinion of Trump after his nearly a decade as a candidate and president .

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2#48315328)

he treats his "keys" like golfers treat holes in match play, right? you won it or i won it. there's no ties. there's not "both sides have some of this key" or "each side is weak on this key."

and each key, no matter how close the call, gets the exact same weighting. keys that swing strongly to one side or the other get the same weighting as keys that are close calls.

it's like match play in golf for 13 holes. reach "1 up" and you are the winner!

it's so fucking absurd to pretend that it's an objective process.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2#48315344)

I'll handle them.

Handle us? You'll handle us? You know, your predecessors had a lot more respect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXGE0vuuaDo

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2#48315851)

If this idiots keys are worth a damn, he'd monetize that edge in betting marketa instead of telling me for free

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2#48315890)