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How long until China totally leapfrogs the USA in AI? < 1 year cr?

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Dun Thirsty Place Of Business Sneaky Criminal
  07/01/26
It probably already has Reminder most common "Americ...
Big step-uncle's house stain
  07/01/26
If it has then where is the model?
multi-colored station
  07/01/26
In ur penis probably
Big step-uncle's house stain
  07/01/26
distillation is overblown but chinese models still benefit f...
Emerald generalized bond
  07/01/26
seems reasonable
Mint theater
  07/01/26
Distillation is overblown if being treated as a full magic c...
multi-colored station
  07/01/26


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Date: July 1st, 2026 4:38 PM
Author: Dun Thirsty Place Of Business Sneaky Criminal



(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5879021&forum_id=2#49974123)



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Date: July 1st, 2026 4:41 PM
Author: Big step-uncle's house stain

It probably already has

Reminder most common "American AI" workers name is Ching Chong

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5879021&forum_id=2#49974133)



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Date: July 1st, 2026 4:42 PM
Author: multi-colored station

If it has then where is the model?

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5879021&forum_id=2#49974136)



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Date: July 1st, 2026 5:46 PM
Author: Big step-uncle's house stain

In ur penis probably

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5879021&forum_id=2#49974295)



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Date: July 1st, 2026 4:51 PM
Author: Emerald generalized bond

distillation is overblown but chinese models still benefit from being able to distill and train on synthetic data produced by US frontier models. i feel like if it were easy for them to completely catch up they would have already given how many companies are attempting to do so there

the more relevant question is "when do chinese models get good enough that the difference doesn't practically matter for 99% of use", which i think we're 1-2 years away from. sooner for coding specifically.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5879021&forum_id=2#49974150)



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Date: July 1st, 2026 6:09 PM
Author: Mint theater

seems reasonable

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5879021&forum_id=2#49974325)



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Date: July 1st, 2026 6:10 PM
Author: multi-colored station

Distillation is overblown if being treated as a full magic catch-up. But underblown as an explanation for rapid practical convergence. And it is definitely cheating big time, although probably not legally exact to call it "counterfeiting" it is more in that direction than anything else.

Also I think the part you are missing is that a model has not "caught up" just because it meets benchmarks if it can only generate better capability through privileged access to a stronger teacher. That just makes it a successful parasite.

(https://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5879021&forum_id=2#49974332)