They're clearly going to drag it out and keep baiting the administration for the rest of the year and probably beyond, so what's the plan here? They'll meet in Switzerland, sign something, then tell everyone they didn't sign shit and it's all a zionist lie, Trump will tweet that they're dishonest goatfuckers and then they'll resume talks, rinse and repeat.
Is the admin even aware that they're being baited?
plan is iran is going to get everything they want when the asian economy craters and they all start dumping treasuries to buy oil at $200/bl. alternatively, if america wants to keep fucking around iran is going to bomb gulf oil facilities until they all kick us out and stop selling in USD, which is probably going to happen even if the war stops. it's a real shit sandwich. we took a good shot at them, but it failed, and now they're going to be stronger and madder than ever. it's hard not to conclude that we should go for total war right now, rather than in 5 years when they're fortified.
plan is iran is going to get everything they want when the asian economy craters and they all start dumping treasuries to buy oil at $200/bl. alternatively, if america wants to keep fucking around iran is going to bomb gulf oil facilities until they all kick us out and stop selling in USD, which is probably going to happen even if the war stops. it's a real shit sandwich. we took a good shot at them, but it failed, and now they're going to be stronger and madder than ever. it's hard not to conclude that we should go for total war right now, rather than in 5 years when they're fortified.
Date: August 12th, 2026 7:05 PM Author: contagious preventive strike
petrodollar is probably dead, China has divested 50% of their US treasuries over the past ten years, and we literally just gave Japan (the single largest foreign holder of US bonds) $$$ to keep the JPY carry trade skkkam going. But JPY finna sink again and they'll have to raise interest rates, making the JPY carry trade no longer viable, cratering the US bond market
Date: August 12th, 2026 4:04 PM Author: Claret becky kitchen
The strait being closed is absolutely a nightmare for the Iranians. The blockade has decimated their economy. Obviously it's life or death literally for the regime so no hold bared, but shit is really really bad. This is on top of constant bombing to their infrastructure. Not good.
The US has never made more money off of oil. We're now the safe place to get oil along with our Venezuelan shell corp company. The war has really shifted global energy to the Americans. Lol remember opec?
What's worse for Iran is that their adversaries would gladly fund new pipelines over paying a toll. In the long-term Iran can't really play the same card again. If I was Iran I would think a nuke is the only remaining cars to play.
Date: August 12th, 2026 4:40 PM Author: odious new version shrine
This is genuinely impressive in how utterly wrong every single sentence is. You’ve managed to post a complete manifesto on global energy while lacking even a middle-school level understanding of geography, international law, or basic economics.
The idea that adversaries can just "fund new pipelines" to replace the Strait of Hormuz proves you have zero concept of scale. Hormuz moves roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day. There isn't a pipeline network on Earth that can absorb that volume, no matter how much money you throw at it.
The rest of your post is pure unhinged fanfiction. Venezuela isn't a "US shell corp.” it’s a state-owned oil industry, and Chevron having a temporary license to operate there doesn't mean America owns the country. And "remember OPEC?" OPEC+ controls 80% of the world's proven reserves. Oil is a fungible global commodity, meaning when supply gets choked, prices skyrocket for everyone, including us.
Log off, delete this embarrassing garbage, and go read a book before you inflict your opinions on the internet ever again. Or just kill yourself
Date: August 12th, 2026 4:57 PM Author: the White jensen huang
i am honestly flabbergasted that anyone could believe that iran is somehow being harmed by the closure of the strait of hormuz more than the US is. iran is *choosing* to keep the strait closed. they are trying to drag this out as long as they can because they know it hurts the US more than it hurts them. it's literally their entire strategy
if they were being harmed by it more than we were, they would just....open the strait and make peace, a peace that the US has desperately been trying to achieve for a long time now
Date: August 12th, 2026 5:05 PM Author: Claret becky kitchen
Ok harm is relative here. The Iranians depend on oil revenue for 80% of their gdp. For their economy this is a death sentence. However, the relative threat to them is dramatic. This is an existential issue for the regime so any price is worth it. If the US was being harmed proportionally, you realize we could escalate the conflict to open the straight. We have a giant army and nuclear weapons etc.
For the Iran this is how long can we live in the bunker or die, but for us it's how long can we handle people bitching about gas prices.
Date: August 12th, 2026 5:12 PM Author: the White jensen huang
there is only one point of comparison that matters: which side is advantaged by the closure of the straight, and which side is disadvantaged. everything else is irrelevant
yes, iran can live in their bunker longer than the politicians who control the actions of the US army can handle people bitching about gas prices. that's the whole point. the US won't invade or nuke iran because that would harm the US politicians more than making a disadvantageous peace would
Date: August 12th, 2026 5:15 PM Author: Claret becky kitchen
I don't know that the first question is answered. I think bottling up Iran's oil was a key target of the entire operation. Americans had higher prices under Biden.
Edit: and in real terms the closure is definitely hurting Iran more. I don't think people appreciate just how bad things are there. They had Internet blackout since January that fucked the economy. That was before their oil exports went to near zero and half of their critical infrastructure was destroyed. That's all very bad shit that doesn't get fixed overnight.
Date: August 12th, 2026 5:22 PM Author: the White jensen huang
well this will be pretty easy to figure out. we'll just wait for iran to open the straight back up, since it's entirely up to them, and they can unilaterally do so at any time
Date: August 12th, 2026 5:35 PM Author: the White jensen huang
china is never invading taiwan, brother. if that's what you're basing all of this on, i can see how/why you ended up where you are by working backwards from that assumption
Date: August 12th, 2026 5:44 PM Author: Claret becky kitchen
It doesn't actually say China WILL invade, they just have to be ready to by next year. A bunch of their other diplomatic efforts are built on the assumption they would have a credible threat to take the island by force. Don't discount that. And it's more complicated than that. I don't think China will ever invade either, but the likelihood isn't zero.
Taiwan is critical to the AI future, which is the panacea to population decline targets for 2050 and 2100, and so forth. ..
Date: August 13th, 2026 10:42 AM Author: Claret becky kitchen
I guess I wasn't very clear. Cutting off oil exports is a death sentence for the Iranian economy. The war is the existential crisis for the regime. However, the regime is a theocratic dictatorship so there is no economic accountability.
I also don't think regime change was ever on the table. Iran purged it's dissidents right before the US/Israel strikes, so the people to actually overthrow the current government were killed and no population is going to rally around an invading army, especially with Jews involved. But the US already knew this. Israel was hoping for basically chaos and for the country to split apart. That's not what the US wanted.
Date: August 12th, 2026 5:01 PM Author: Claret becky kitchen
Lol international law!
They are funding new pipelines and I bet overall added capacity over the next decade exceeds 20 million barrels. It won't happen overnight but arabs have a lot of two things; money and hate for Shia Persians. Some of the pipelines make sense already. That's why I said Iran only gets to use this card once.
Oil is fungible but only on the petrodollar system. Iranian and Russian oil was making it to Chinese markets off the books. That can't be allowed. The US is the world's top producer of energy today. That makes us rich here but also expands the industry reach. This isn't the 90s when we were terrified of opec. Opec now fears the mid level fracking outfits in the US Midwest...they price the oil ceiling now. Price too high and they kick up production. That's death for opec.
Date: August 12th, 2026 4:31 PM Author: Pearly lettuce gas station
this is what happens when u elect a 60 IQ birdshit birdbrain POTUS who's arrogant while being totally retarded with no long term, or even medium term, thinking at all
its hilarous to me dubya took hell for years from media and society for iraq debacle but this is 10x worse stragetically but somehow trump isnt even getting that much blame for what really is the dumbest furking foreign policy decision by a POTUS since WW2
Date: August 12th, 2026 7:20 PM Author: marvelous crimson resort
The admin doesn't have any good options. Looks like it's going to be back and forth cold conflict. If we get lucky the blockade fuels underground opposition in the country. The regime has looked like it was close to the brink a few times in the past 20 years. But more likely we'll be paying this retarded "Hormuz Tax" for a long time to come.
Date: August 13th, 2026 9:50 AM Author: french copper factory reset button forum
Is Israel doing anything to attack Iran or resolve the war that they started for their survival? Seems like they just attacked Iran, talked us into joining, then left.
Date: August 13th, 2026 10:04 AM Author: amber frisky locale
The plan is to make the GOP congress so unpopular they get voted out in November and replaced by a Dem Congress that grabs Trump by the balls until he capitulates and ends the war unilaterally.
The plan is working.
Iran has outmaneuvered Israel by far. So much for Jews being high IQ.