remember 2004 with the blue state vs. red state maps and the south was completely red?
how'd VA, home of the former Confederate capitol, get flipped into a blue state? is this the beginning of a trend? are the borders of the South slowly turning blue while parts of the Midwest turning red?
guess Maryland is technically part of the south and was blue previously
Date: November 27th, 2017 10:33 PM Author: startling university hominid
tbf, Minnesota is probably going to go Republican eventually and I don't think the Democrats really care all that much because of the gains they'll make elsewhere. they probably view the upper midwest as a lost cause long term and are more focused on the southwest and southeast where there are way more potential electoral votes.
Date: November 8th, 2017 2:40 AM Author: Red contagious theater
delaware is an odd state. it's very small, yet the bottom part of the state is the south, and i think still pretty republican, but the top of the state is basically philly and super shitlib. but, yes, it has overall become very blue.
Date: November 27th, 2017 8:33 PM Author: Electric persian toaster
actually I think if you removed all of NoVa then Gillespie wins by 1 point. But that's kind of pathetic for Gillespie and it's also like saying, well if you removed NYC from NY then it's a swing state.
Date: November 27th, 2017 10:32 PM Author: startling university hominid
I haven't done the math but I don't even think that would get Gillespie to winning. But everyone there is hardly in the federal government. There are a lot of students that commute into DC in Arlington/Alexandria. There are also a lot of other industries, like tech, in Fairfax. It's a huge, diverse, sprawling area that is becoming less and less dependent strictly on the Federal Government.
Date: November 27th, 2017 11:50 PM Author: Electric persian toaster
Trump barely won whites with college degrees or higher. however, that group was the main swing in 2017 and Northam won whites with college degrees or higher.
Date: November 27th, 2017 10:36 PM Author: startling university hominid
GOP taking away SALT will not turn blue states red, it will just make those states even more pissed at the GOP. the GOP tax bill is suicide, they are basically pissing off the voters they need to hold in 2018 (upper income suburbanites).
Date: November 27th, 2017 11:22 PM Author: Electric persian toaster
are you dumb? almost all Republicans that are winning in blue states are in wealthy districts, where a huge (much higher than avg) proportion of voters itemize.
Date: November 27th, 2017 11:33 PM Author: dude, you did a murder
count the votes, 1 in OC, 1 in seattle suburbs, 2 in new york, 1-2 in NOVA, several in NJ, 2 chicago suburbs. So maybe 10-11? How many will be counter balanced by wins in flyover?
Date: November 27th, 2017 11:35 PM Author: Electric persian toaster
rosy predictions. there are many more republicans in California. also a Miami Beach district that is widely expected to flip. everyone knows Democrats are the favorites to take back the house.
there are few if any districts that will flip the other way because those are almost all safe Dem-packed districts. you have no clue about politics do you?
Date: November 27th, 2017 10:39 PM Author: startling university hominid
Georgia will probably drop before NC. 2008 was a weird blip for places like Indiana and NC... but the trendlines in Georgia are clearer and more accelerated.
Dems are making nice gains in GA but if they even want to think about winning that state, they need to win races like Ossof's by 10-15 points. Thats how they donin similar seats in Nova.
Date: November 27th, 2017 11:21 PM Author: Electric persian toaster
not really because the difference between GA and VA is that the big anchor city for VA (Washington, DC) is not part of the vote, whereas Atlanta is located inside of Georgia and that's where all the growth is (and the very near in burbs)... add to that fairly large population decline in rural GA and they probably just need to improve a couple of points in Ossof's district.
Date: November 27th, 2017 11:24 PM Author: Painfully honest location
a month ago trumpmos were saying this race was going to show that the wave is bullshit... now the storyline is that Virginia is a solid blue state. why did they have Trump robocall a solidly blue state? dumb strategy.
you are talking as if he actively campaigned there. he did a robocall and made some tweets BFD.
my take on it - VA result was surprising mainly due to the margin of victory. at the end of the day the demographics doesnt favor GOP and for states like VA where they are underdogs they need to win the enthusiasm battle - better turnout for GOP vs DEM coalition. The reverse happened here and it could be anti-trump factor or charlottesville or whatever. so GOP lost in a resounding fashion. but this doesnt mean anything nationally for 2018 or for that matter even the next VA governor election. VA is light blue and is not CA
the libs ITT making predictions based on better than expected margin of victory are idiots. its far too early to predict what is going to happen in 2018 far less 2020 and 2024 like the lib pumo shithead is doing ITT
2024? Really? What in the flying fuck. do u think anybody would have even thought about trump in 2009? or obama in 2001? and still we have idiot libs making grandiose predictions about GOP destruction in 2024 today
Date: November 27th, 2017 11:38 PM Author: Electric persian toaster
none of you turds were claiming Virginia was a blue state earlier this year.
the margin of victory is very very ominous for Republicans. it shows that Democrats are outperforming Hillary's margins in an off year, which is unusual. there are about two dozen house members in districts Clinton won. those are all likely to flip and in fact many republicans in them have coincidentally announced their retirements.
if Dems outperform Hillary margins by 5 points nationally like they did in Virginia, an additional 25 or so house districts flip.
who the fuck was claiming VA to be not blue you idiot shithead? Hillary literally won that state after Obama in 2012. how the fuck can it be anything other than leaning DEM/slight blue?
"if Dems outperform Hillary margins by 5 points nationally like they did in Virginia, an additional 25 or so house districts flip."
If my aunt had a penis she would be my uncle. far too early to say what is going to happen in 2018 and VA results is irrelevant for 2018. lot will depend on the economy at that time not to mention status of healthcare, taxes etc
if the worst case scenario is GOP losing the house I will take it. Senate is needed to pack the courts for the remaining 2 years and no there will be no impeachment even with a slender dem majority in the house absent serious evidence of misbehavior by Trump. There will be enough dems (~50) who will be smart enough to know that you dont want to impeach a president as a purely partisan affair based on his politically incorrect behavior. that will just guarantee that the next dem potus is 100% getting impeached when GOP wins back the house
Date: November 27th, 2017 11:49 PM Author: Electric persian toaster
(unhinged)
question 1: most people here.
question 2: people here don't use basic logic. look back at your own posting for more on this.
point 3: we are a year away from next November, but I can predict that in a year it will be Nov. 27, 2018. Nice try though.
point 4: " There will be enough dems (~50) who will be smart enough to know that you dont want to impeach a president as a purely partisan affair based on his politically incorrect behavior" - no response to your utter delusions here.
Date: November 27th, 2017 11:57 PM Author: Electric persian toaster
notice the very obvious trend of low income voters from Obama to Trump. Which is the way many xo posters claim to have voted: Obama --> Trump. it's like you guys do my work for me.
notice 250K or more was basically split the last election. GOP can't even get educated voters to vote for them when offering them tax cuts.
Date: November 28th, 2017 12:06 AM Author: Electric persian toaster
many posters here claimed to have voted Obama then switched to Trump.
also, are you literal low iq? Trump's biggest campaign pledge was to repeal Obamacare, which would instantly cut taxes for the rich by removing the special tax on 250K+ voters. of course, you probably wouldn't be concerned with that as a personal matter.
Date: November 28th, 2017 3:01 AM Author: startling university hominid
dunno bro, Fox and Friends had some hard hitting analysis showing that Republicans had twice the enthusiasm as Democrats and the Virginia Beach vote would bring GILLESPIE across the finish line to a powerful victory: